Pac-12 Basketball Needs Big Conference Partnership; Pac-12/Big Ten Series Coming?
Yes, the Pac-12 has not had the greatest year as a basketball conference. But they could've had a much easier time earning tournament bids if they could just improve their non-conference schedule. Pac-12 teams have played a majority of these games away from home, and in neutral sites that pretty much qualify as away contests.
As you can see at the end of this column, the Pac-12 went 1-26 against teams ranked in the top 50 according to Ken Pomeroy's standings, and went 7-36 against teams ranked in the top 100. But of those 27 losses, 20 were on the road or at neutral sites. The Pac-12 went 5-10 in home contests, playing only 15 of their 43 contests at home. That's only about one game apiece for each conference member.
Worst of all, the Pac-12 went 1-15 against top 25 teams (according to Pomeroy), with only five of those games being home contests, with half of those contested by the worst in the Pac.
Additionally, with teams like Arizona State, USC and Utah stuck in perpetual suckitude and losing home games of all sorts, it hurt the profile of everyone else. Lacking the big home games that would've increased the probability of upsets to help prop up RPI causes struggles for everyone.
How'd it get this bad? One big possibility is the Pac-12 not currently enjoying any good tie-ins with another conference. During lean years for each team in college basketball, the Pac-10 and the Big 12 generally propped each other up with their Hardwood Series. It assured teams from each conference quality home contests that would prop up their RPI. However, after the Pac-10 poached Colorado and nearly poached other conference teams, the Big 12 called the series off after 2010, and it really left teams with blanks to fill with mid-majors, most of them not very good.
That left the conference scrambling to find other matchups, and they probably didn't get ideal matchups. Many of those games were neutral site contest played in remote locations favoring teams from other conferences, particularly in Madison Square Garden or Kansas City or East Rutherford. With the Pac-12 playing vastly superior teams in unfavorable environments, the conference struggled to pick it back up.
Starting in 2017, each team from the Pac-12 and the Big Ten will play a team from the other conference in football each season, and the conferences will also begin to play each other extensively in other sports starting as soon as next season.
Having the Pac-12 team up with the Big 10 should provide much needed boosts in strength of schedule. The Big Ten has one of the best conferences in the country with teams like Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State, as well as eight teams ranked 50th and higher in the conference (the Pac-12 has two). While it's not likely the Pac-12 does particularly well in these matchups, a few home games (and one or two upsets) against these top schools could help boost the conference profile. Starting next year.
So the Pac-12 is bad, but they might not be as bad as everyone thinks they are, because the odds were stacked against them to succeed in the first place.
After the jump, the numbers.
Pac-12 Network Should Net Millions Per Year For Each Conference Member
The Pac-12 Network is going to provide plenty of crucial financial benefit for the members of the conference if these current subscription prices are right.
Source: Pac12 Network will charge 90 cent/sub, give or take a nickel. That's close to B1G in-market rate.
— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) February 16, 2012
That would mean about $10.80 per subscription per year. With about 15-20% of American households being digital cable subscribers and the population of the Pac-12 states is just over 60 million, it probably means there are about 9-12 million households watching the network, which would mean probably about $100 million of revenue generated by the Pac-12 national network. Split between the schools and you have at least $7-8 million going back to each member of the conference. Not too shabby.
And this is only a start. There's the out-of-market costs, which will only provide a fraction of that back. This is not taking into account the regional networks, which will probably have a much smaller subscription base and cost but should still bring in revenue totaling a million or so for each member school. There are the online options from Internet and mobile devices, which will probably also have their own subscription costs. There's the broadband and satellite providers that still need to be negotiated with, which should come with their own subscription costs and add in a few more million.
Millions, millions, millions. Who knew the Pac-12 could be so profitable if someone put the time to try and make it so?
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Pac-12 Basketball: Cal, Washington, Colorado Fight For The Crown
The Oregon Ducks and Arizona Wildcats saw their chances of winning a regular season crown dwindle to a flicker with losses this week to the California Golden Bears and the Washington Huskies, as they've now been swept by both of those squads respectively (Oregon 0-2 vs Cal, Arizona 0-2 vs UW). Oregon and Arizona also both stand two games back, meaning if either of these teams won out, they'd have to hope Cal and Washington lose two of their remaining games. While both Cal and Washington are done with their home slate and have been so-so (particularly UW) on the road, both of them have a gimme game (Cal at Utah, UW at USC).
So this is pretty much a three-team race. Washington and Cal are probably going to end up deadlocked in this thing. It's really hard to believe either team will sweep their home slate, but if you had to pick one of those two teams, you'd probably pick Cal, with both Utah and fading Stanford on their slate. Washington must go cross-state to play a feisty Washington State squad that feels like they blew their chance in Seattle, and rivalry games are never easy.
The big question is can the Colorado Buffaloes join them?
Colorado is in a position to muck things up. They haven't lost at home in-conference, pummeling Washington by 18 and nudging Arizona off by one. Cal comes to town next Sunday, and if Colorado beats Cal and UW stumbles against WSU or UCLA, the possibility of a three-way tie comes very much into play. The big deal is that Colorado will also have to go to Oregon the following week, and the Buffs and Ducks will be tussling for the best possible Pac-12 tournament seeding they can get.
If the Pac-12 tournament was played today...
First-round byes
1 seed - California (22-6, 12-3 in conference): After sweeping the Oregon schools, Cal is very close to earning an NCAA tournament at-large bid. Finishing strong in-conference (and at the very least finishing 14-4 in the Pac-12) and at least one tournament win could make the difference.
2 seed - Washington (19-8, 12-3 in conference): Hardly out of hot water yet with road dates coming against Washington State and UCLA, and we all know how much Washington struggles away from home. Still, they are built to win the tournament, and they have to be flush with confidence after beating Zona.
3 seed - Colorado (18-8, 10-4 in conference): Nearly beat Cal in Haas, beat up Washington, edged Oregon thanks to Pac-12 refs, split Arizona. Colorado has to like their chances at winning three straight, but they have to avoid falling to five. Beating Cal or Oregon could do the trick for that.
4 seed - Oregon (19-8, 10-5 in conference): Playing Arizona early could pay off with a first round bye. Ducks need to win in Corvallis and then beat Colorado though, which is a tough one-two order.
Certain death
5 seed - Arizona (19-9, 10-5 in conference): Getting swept by Washington was brutal. This team is tournament-caliber if they can get win out in Staples, but they need to get out of the five hole and avoid the extra game. Their last three games are all highly winnable though, so they probably will escape if someone else trips up ahead of them.
6 seed - UCLA (15-12, 8-6 in conference): Not even homecourt will save the dysfunctional Bruins from being wiped off the mat by Day 2 or 3.
7 seed - Stanford (18-9, 8-7 in conference): Johnny Dawkins has a lot of talent and has produced a .500 squad in-conference. Doubt Stanford can be too happy with these losses, although they could play spoiler with an upset of Cal on the final day of the regular season.
8 seed - Washington St. (14-13, 6-9 in conference): Anyone want a fun Pac-12 Player of the Year candidate to consider? Brock Motum's been balling out.
9 seed - Oregon St. (15-12, 5-10 in conference): OSU-WSU will be a fun first round matchup, as both these teams are performing way below par. I'm pretty sure whoever the one seed is won't be happy to get the winner of this matchup.
10-12 seeds - Pretend they don't exist.
First day matchups:
#8 WSU vs #9 OSU
#7 Stanford vs. #10 ASU
#6 UCLA vs #11 Utah
#5 Arizona vs #12 USC
Second day matchups
#1 Cal vs WSU/OSU winner
#2 UW vs Stanford/ASU winner
#3 Colorado vs UCLA/Utah winner
#4 Oregon vs Arizona/USC winner
This conference isn't great, but the top half has been showing some great fights down the home stretch, and we could be in for a fun final three weeks of the regular season. For the rest, there's an NIT crown to be contested!
Bracketology 2012: Joe Lunardi Has Cal, Arizona, Washington (Barely) In
There's no such thing as a sure thing in the Pac-12 this year, especially not after their harsh non-conference performance. There's been talk of only the Pac-12 tournament winner getting one bid from the conference, although nothing serious has come of it.
Currently Safe
If any team has a shot of earning the at-large bid, it's the California Golden Bears, the only team above 20 wins in the conference. Cal staved off a huge shooting night by Devoe Joseph and rallied behind Justin Cobbs and Harper Kamp to take the win Thursday night in Haas Pavilion.
Magic number for Cal: 5 wins. Presuming they don't do something stupid like lose to Utah, Cal can probably afford to lose one more game in the regular season and finish at 14-4 in-conference and make the tournament. Oregon State did put up 92 points on them in their first meeting, so the Beavers are a potential trap game this weekend. Their final two contests against Colorado and Stanford are their biggest tests--if they split those they should make it in. Add in a win or two in the Pac-12 tourney for good measure.
Even four wins should be enough, but five wins would 100% lock them in.
Projection for Cal: Lunardi has Cal as a 9th seed. This could go up if the Bears go undefeated, but they're pretty close to their ceiling (can't imagine them going higher than a 7th seed). Two/three losses down the stretch probably drops them to a 11/12 seed.
Just Above The Bubble
The Arizona Wildcats are next in line and the second likeliest team to get in. Arizona has won five straight games, sits a game behind Cal and owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. Arizona has two challenging games left before the tournament (at Washington today, home for UCLA next weekend) and two pushovers in ASU and USC. Arizona has a good shot at 22 wins, which would straddle them right on the line of an at-large bid. Of all the Pac-12 teams, the Wildcats probably played the best out-of-conference and have an RPI capable of rising higher.
Arizona must get past Washington and hope Cal trips up somewhere, as winning the Pac-12 would strengthen their claim.
Projection for Arizona: They are currently an 11th seed according to Lunardi. Which makes them bubblicious. Arizona has to win three of their final four and hope one of those losses isn't to the scrubs.
Magic number for Arizona: If no tournament championship, they probably must win five of their next six to feel comfortable.
Last Team In?
The Washington Huskies are surging to the finish and are tied for the conference lead, but their non-conference performance was so pitiful that it's unlikely they can earn an at-large bid unless they win out. Every win only edges them up the bubble, while every loss has the potential to knock them out. And Washington has three tough games ahead--today against Arizona in what could be a potential tournament elimination game, a rivalry contest in Pullman, and then a road game at UCLA, who UW barely beat the first time around. That's a lot of close contests UW needs to pull out, and they can probably only afford to drop one.
Projection for Washington: UW is currently the last team in according to Lunardi. So Washington really can't feel safe unless they win the Pac-12 tournament.
Magic number for Washington: Win out, or lose only one game--probably to a team like Arizona or Cal.
On The Bubble
The Oregon Ducks have a shot, but they are in dire straits after blowing their game last night to Cal. Oregon probably has to win out or win the tournament, two things they are probably capable of doing in a conference where the top five teams have difficulty separating from each other. Lunardi has them fifth off the bubble, but they're probably a step behind everyone else.
The Colorado Buffaloes also have a shot, although they do have to beat Cal at home and Oregon on the road. Not an easy task. Then probably win the tournament. They're probably longshots, but Tad Boyle's bunch has impressed all year long.
College Football Playoffs: Pac-12 And Big Ten Want Their Cake And Their Rose Bowl
The Rose Bowl. It's the one remaining symbol of the old age of college football, that still healthy New Year's tradition of parades down Colorado Boulevard and Pasadena sunsets where Big Ten sturdiness meets Pac-12 innovation. Although at times there have been some modifications to that format (TCU!), for the most part it remains the same as it's always been.
When it's come down to the subject of playoffs, the Rose Bowl has caused a lot of concern for both these conferences. They know the value of the game to both conferences. They know how much it means to their fans that they get a chance to play on January 1st in the shadow of the San Gabriel Mountains. To get a plus-one that all parties have long sought after, the Rose Bowl tradition must be preserved.
But if change is coming, a Final Four of Football detached from the bowls might be a good way to preserve the best tradition in the sport.
Most years, the leagues’ champions would continue to meet in the Granddaddy of Them All. If one or both teams were plucked out for the new playoff, the Rose Bowl would be able to replace them and maintain the traditional matchup.
There's still no denying the power of codger old Delaney, who has maneuvered with the newcomer Scott and the Pac-12 to together create a future inter-conference rivalry in the regular season to extend from the original Rose Bowl game setting. Now with both the Pac-12 and the Big Ten standing for playoffs, both conferences should maintain their upward trend in the power games of big conferences
Both conferences share similar desires to blend both academic and athletic excellence to maintain the ideal of the student athlete. Both have (or will soon have) their own networks to distribute the premier content of their conference. And both want to keep the Rose Bowl. These two conferences seem tied in the hip at whatever decision is made.
Both Big Ten and Pac-12 have tried to stay as close to the top as possible in the power races of the big time conferences, yet their luster has faded these past few years. Perhaps together, they can provide the grandiose leap toward progress for all parties to become fully invested on the outside.
Pac-12 Networks Pioneer College Athletics Into The 21st Century
The future home for the Pac-12 Network was revealed Monday in San Francisco. Six months from now, the Pac-12 Network will debut to great fanfare, and all will rejoice. The celebration was fairly low-key, but you can feel that big things are coming, and the seismic shifts will be felt all around college sports.
In terms of location, San Francisco made perfect sense for the conference. For one, the headquarters are located right in the cutting edge of the technology world, and the Pac-12 is all about using evolving technologies. As big as the Pac-12 Network is expected to be, the Pac-12 Digital Network will be just as crucial to allow fans of the conference to view content from any device, everywhere. And who's more familiar with digital technology than the fine technological minds situated in the Bay Area?
Of course, the conference can't make the total leap; digital economics demand the conference must make sacrifices on that front. You must be a subscriber in some sense to the conference network, meaning you must be signed up in some way to the Pac-12 Network in real life to access any of the content elsewhere (whether on Internet or mobile devices). But the Pac-12 braintrust definitely realized that to make the endeavor a profitable one from the start, subscriber fees would be the ultimate way to make it happen.
Pac-12 Basketball Tournament And Las Vegas: New Arena On The Way?
Pac-12 basketball is something that generates a lot of apathy from the masses these days, because, well, it's simply not all that fun to talk about. Maybe one or two teams will be tournament-bound, while the rest end up in consolation brackets or stuck in perpetual rebuilding.
Usually you'd think the final event would be something to take notice of, but the venue just makes you go meh. The Pac-12 and many of its fans are tired of Staples Center and empty arenas that make you think you got lost and ended up at Galen. Many conference members want to make a change, and the Pac-12 seems willing to make a move as well.
Vegas seems to be actively discussed as a future site for the conference to host the tournament, and it's an exciting thing to think about. Vegas has the central location similar to Los Angeles that would work for the Pac-12, but doesn't suffer from the same issues that plague the LA. There are few traffic and logistical issues in Vegas, with only one central site where most people will stay. (Whereas most people who visit LA do not spend their time in downtown LA, particularly for the long stretch of time that the Pac-12 Tournament demands). It would also eliminate the numerous gripes many people have about the tourney being in a site that clearly favors the hometown USC Trojans and UCLA Bruins, and would be as neutral a site. And it's far easier to coax people to spend a week in Vegas than in LA, plus more convenient to make an impromptu trip planned only a week or so in advance.
The only question is where to play the games? MGM Garden Arena seems to be discussed as the potential site if a move was to be made in the next year or two, but it's clearly an untenable spot long-term, as the arena lacks the amenities or luxury suites to be a successful site financially long-term. Ditto Thomas and Mack Center (a nice enough arena, but still an old one) and Orleans Arena (too small). There needs to be a central site.
So this news seems convenient.
Chinese banking concerns agree to finance $650 million for 17,500 sports arena in Las Vegas.
— Steve Carp (@stevecarprj) February 13, 2012
Deal for Vegas arena is with International Development Management and Smart Cities International. Construction starts mid-year and done 2014
— Steve Carp (@stevecarprj) February 13, 2012
@TwoPieceBoxing In Henderson near the M Hotel and Casino off I-15 at the very south end of town.
— Steve Carp (@stevecarprj) February 13, 2012
There you go. With a big-time arena in Vegas and plenty of capable transport between the Strip and the new location, you have your new central site to play the premier postseason event of the Pac-12. And it should sell pretty well in Vegas compared to Los Angeles. Move to MGM for a year or two before switching to the new state-of-the-art facility a year or two down the road.
It seems the conference is on the point of making their decision, and Vegas has to be sitting pretty good.
(It might seem coincidental, but with Scott and China both also inter-mingling, do you wonder how much of a hand he had to play in getting some investors from this country to take a look at one of the major tourism destinations of the world to suit his purposes? I wouldn't put it past him.)
Pac-12 In China: A Real Great Leap Forward
Larry Scott is always thinking outside the box when it comes to making the Pac-12 one of the premier conferences in America. And one of those ideas involves taking the Pac-12 beyond our borders and tapping into an international market receptive to the message the Pac-12 purports.
The most obvious target to Scott is the one nation that might soon dwarf America: China.
For the Pac-12 to move beyond its current secondary status, it must expand outside the West Coast. Its reach is limited and doesn't carry the numbers and groundswell of support the SEC and BIg 10 currently enjoy. Despite being a relatively stable conference with great regional battles, the Pac-12 seems to fall a step short in the numbers game, particularly when it comes to support of their teams. The Pac-12 needs to challenge the sectarianism of the SEC by expanding its reach beyond its restricted borders, and the Asian market seems like the natural location to turn to.
Lya Wodraska of the Salt Lake Tribune reports more on the issue.
"There is a natural connection there with the Pac-12 and it’s leading research institutions in the Western United States," he said of China. "We look at it as the gateway to the Pacific Rim, and we already have a large population of Asian students and alumni, so there is a very natural connection."
Scott said he doesn’t envision regular-season games taking place in China in the immediate future due to travel and time demands on athletics during the academic year, but believes there are other opportunities that exist during the summer months.
"We can do tournaments and festivals and direct competition with foreign teams," he said. "Those are the things we will focus on first."
In many ways, football is probably only a morbid curiosity in this discussion. Notre Dame playing Stanford in a year or two is discussed, but it doesn't have amazing growth potential unless young Chinese athletes take a liking to the gridiron. There are other more entrenched sports to consider.
There's a lot to like about these developments from a basketball standpoint, particularly with the rise of stars like Jeremy Lin. Basketball is one of the most popular sports in China, and it's only set to rise higher. At the moment, Chinese basketball players have struggled in panning out in college, but if the Pac-12 could sell itself to Asia, top Asian players in the future might end up looking hard at the West Coast schools they're most familiar with.
However, probably even more important for the conference has to be the potential of the Olympics.
You might not have noticed in Beijing four years ago, but the Olympic Games are quite a big deal in the country. Every sport had China going strong for the gold in hopes of winning the medal count, and they did capture the most number of golds of any country.
The Pac-12 prides itself on being the Conference of Champions not just for its football and basketball. It has some of the proudest traditions in all of sport. The best indoor volleyball is generally played on the West Coast, and many of the best players that end up on the Olympic team end up in the Pac-12. The strong swimming and diving tradition (most notable at Cal this past decade) has helped provide the US with some outstanding athletes who are the most decorated of all the Americans. Gymnastics at UCLA and Utah has been strong lately.
If the Pac-12 could tie themselves in with Asia's ambition to compete in the Olympic sports at every level, it could foster some great relationships that benefit the conference. Landing some of the younger promising Chinese Olympic athletes at the Pac-12 institutions to further develop their game would be critical for landing a TV deal, as there's a great need to market and showcase the best of China to its people.
Likewise, such events or exhibitions outside the country would provide similar boosts in culture and broaden horizons of all the Pac-12 athletes by getting a chance to interact with another culture of a burgeoning superpower, and give many of them (particularly non-revenue athletes) new opportunities to thrive in places more accepting of their sports. Asia has long been interested in Olympic sports and has never concerned itself too much with college football, so you have to feel the Pac-12's history of success there will be a selling point.
And of course, the academic tradition of some of the main schools like Cal, Stanford and UCLA goes without saying. China would have to be intrigued at sending its best athletes to some of the best institutions in the United States to further integrate the interests of both countries. The promise of academic events and other such exhibitions can only be a good sign that the Pac-12 Network has a chance of being distributed overseas, as it gives the Pac-12 a good name in these areas.
This could become the start of a beautiful, symbiotic relationship that benefits the fine student-athletes of the Chinese mainland and help further bolster the future health of the Pac-12 in general.
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