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Pac-12 Football Advanced Stats: Can UCLA Win The South?

The newest NCAA Football S&P+ & FEI advanced stats (and thus F/+ ratings) have been revealed by Football Outsiders. After Oregon and Stanford, very hard to make sense of anything.

Today I look at one of those rankings.


6 Oregon  4-1  267.1 7 1 141.9 3 125.1 13
8 Stanford  5-0  258.3 8 0 130 7 128.2 10
30 Arizona State  5-1  227 29 -1 114.4 33 112.6 31
38 Arizona  1-5  218.5 41 3 116.7 26 101.8 58
45 USC  4-1  214.2 39 -6 115 32 99.1 67
48 UCLA  3-3  212.3 57 9 111.4 41 100.9 62
60 California  3-2  204.5 49 -11 98.5 73 106 50
61 Oregon State  1-4  204.3 64 3 93.8 81 110.4 37
65 Utah  2-3  201.6 58 -7 90.4 94 111.2 34
68 Washington  4-1  200.6 56 -12 106.7 52 93.9 81
71 Colorado  1-5  199.8 66 -5 101.2 65 98.6 69
90 Washington State  3-2  185.4 78 -12 100.3 68 85 109


A few observations:

UCLA Could Win The Pac-12 South

Sounded far-fetched a few weeks ago, but the Bruins look decent enough. Their three losses have been to three really good teams with either overriding talent or elite college quarterbacks. They can run and move the ball behind Johnathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman. Four of their last five games are against South opponents. They get ASU in the Rose Bowl, a team that isn't that far ahead of them in production. Their defense can be maddening to watch, but so far it hasn't lost them any games. The ingredients are there for Rick Neuheisel to feel upbeat about at least a year or two more running the show in Westwood.

The big question is whether Kevin Prince can be as effective as Richard Brehaut.  And that is a BIG if. Still, when was the last time a prince let you down?

Arizona in 4th? Why?

Answer: Nick Foles garbage-time stats are a hell of a drug. He's completing 72 to 73% of his passes and has ten touchdown passes with his team trailing by eight points or more. In fact almost all of Arizona's best moments came with the Wildcats already in huge insurmountable holes.

Also keep in mind Arizona is in general a methodical five/six yard team that eschews the big play over progressive yardage pickups, so Airraid units like Arizona and ASU will always rank highly on this scale because of the way they generally move the football. 

Washington in 10th? WHY?

It's a bit shocking to see the Huskies so low. But let's take a look at each of their victories.

  • Eastern Washington. Keith Price moves the ball well and puts points up. Nick Holt's defense gives up a thousand yards.
  • Hawaii. Keith Price moves the ball well and puts points up. Nick Holt's defense gives up two thousand yards.
  • Cal. Keith Price moves the ball well and puts points up. Nick Holt's defense gives up five hundred yards.
  • Utah. The Utes hate holding onto the football, so Washington wins because someone's gotta have it. 

Yep, that defense. One of the worst in the country still. Holt's unit displayed mild competence against two of the worse offenses in the conference, but a huge crash could be on the way with the top four offenses on the docket after this week's game against Colorado. Don't be at all surprised if Washington ends up back at 5-5.

Oregon State in EIGHTH???

Uh, yeah. Got me.