Pac-12 NCAA Tournament watch 3/11: Six Pac-12 teams in heading into the Pac-12 Tournament with Cal on the outside

In

Arizona 28-3 (15-3)

Good wins: Duke, at Michigan, at San Diego State, UCLA, Oregon, at Colorado, Colorado, Arizona State, at Stanford, Stanford, Cal, Southern

Seed: 1

The Wildcats are still in the hunt for the top overall seed in the tournament, but would need to win the Pac-12 Tournament and have Florida not win the SEC Tournament to have a shot at it, and then they would still need to worry about Wichita State. The good news for the Wildcats is that I think they have a number one seed sewn up regardless of how they do in the conference tournament.

UCLA 23-8 (12-6)

Good wins: at Oregon, at Colorado, Colorado, Arizona State, Stanford, at Cal, Cal

Bad losses: at Washington State

Seed: 6-7

Not long ago, the Bruins were challenging for a three seed but have really stumbled down the stretch, dropping three of their last five games, including a closing blowout loss to Washington State that was probably the most confusing in-conference game of the season. The Bruins can still probably hang around the six seed or maybe even get into the 4-5 range if they at least hold court in the Pac-12 Tournament, but an early exit could push them back towards the dreaded 7-8 range.

Oregon 22-8 (10-8)

Good wins: Arizona, at UCLA, Arizona State, BYU, UC Irvine, Utah Valley

Seed: 8-10

One of the hottest teams in the nation, I think the Ducks are assuredly in the tournament even if they get bounced by Oregon State in the opening round of the tournament after closing out the regular season with a sweep of the Arizona schools. If the Ducks can stay hot and win the conference tournament, they could get as high as the six seed, an unfathomable accomplishment just a few weeks ago.

On the bubble

Arizona State 21-10 (10-8)

Good wins: Arizona, Oregon, Colorado, Stanford, at Cal, Cal, UC Irvine

Seed: 9-11

The Sun Devils were soaring going into last week, but had a tough round trip to Oregon and now are still on the bubble are losing four out of their last six and their last two. A single win in the Pac-12 Tournament should ensure the Sun Devils a tournament spot and at least a number 10 seed and they could get up to a number seven with a good enough run.

Colorado 21-10 (10-8)

Good wins: Kansas, Oregon, Arizona State, at Stanford, Harvard

Seed: 10-12/play-in

The Buffaloes got a much-needed win at Stanford last week, but they are still firmly on the bubble, especially since the selection committee knows that they won't have Spencer Dinwiddie. Still, they have a good overall record and a handful of good wins without any bad losses, so they should be safe as long as they beat USC in the opening road of the Pac-12 Tournament and can get into the 7-9 range with a good run in the tournament.

Stanford 19-11 (10-8)

Good wins: at UConn, UCLA, Arizona State, at Cal

Seed: 11-12/play-in

The Cardinal did themselves well by winning what was essentially a must-win game against Utah on Saturday, but are still very much on the edge of falling out of the tournament, having lost three out of their last four. They absolutely need to win their opening round game against Washington State and will probably have to beat Arizona State in the next round if they don't want to be sweating it out Sunday and possibly falling into a play-in game.

Cal 19-12 (10-8)

Good wins: Arizona, at Oregon, Colorado, at Stanford, Arkansas

Bad losses: at USC

Seed: NIT-12/play-in

I just don't see the committee letting seven Pac-12 teams in the tournament, so I think whichever team of the Top seven Pac-12 squads that is at the bottom of the totem pole will slip into the NIT, and right now I think that is Cal. The Bears have dropped three out of their last four and four out of their last six, so they absolutely need to win their likely second round Pac-12 Tournament game over Colorado to have a shot at making it in.

Hanging by a thread

Utah 20-10 (9-9)

Good wins: UCLA, Arizona State, Colorado, at Cal, BYU

Bad losses: at Washington State

Seed: NIT-One of those tournaments that start with C

I know most have probably written the Utes off after their loss at Stanford Saturday, but I am still considering them since I believe there is still a relatively possible way that they could make the NCAA Tournament without winning the Pac-12 Tournament. With their great overall record, handful of good wins and lack of bad losses, I think the Utes could get into the NCAA Tournament if they lost in the championship of the Pac-12 Tournament, considering it would add a win over Arizona and another over Cal or Colorado to get there.