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We know how ridiculous it is to do a mock draft basically a year before the NFL Draft, but we don't care, everyone is doing it, so we will too, with our usual Pac-12 perspective, focusing on the Pac-12 players we think are going in the first round.
Note that I put the draft order together based on how I think the 2014 NFL season will play out.
1. Jacksonville – Leonard Williams DE USC
Williams has already had a fantastic career, but I expect him to truly explode as a junior in 2014 and he has the highest ceiling of just about any player in college football. As we all know, ultra-athletic defensive linemen that can make plays sideline-to-sideline don’t last long in the draft, so I don’t expect Williams to.
If Jacksonville does in fact finish with the worst record in the league, it will likely mean that Blake Bortles didn’t light the world on fire and the Jaguars would be tempted to take one of the many elite quarterback prospects who might be available in 2015, but I think they would have to give number three pick at least two years to prove himself. The Jaguars could trade this pick to a team that needs a quarterback, but I think they would instead choose to take the best player available at another position.
2. Oakland – Cedric Ogbuehi T Texas A&M
3. Cleveland – Andrus Peat T Stanford
Peat came into his own as a sophomore and now is poised for an All-American season as a 6’7 320 tackle that can really move, and last time I checked, the NFL really values those kinds of athletes. He could use a little bit of polish, but a freakish athlete with his pedigree and proven production in an NFL-like system at Stanford should mean that he doesn’t stick around long in the draft.
Like most teams that rely on an electric rookie quarterback, the Browns should be fun to watch and sneak up on teams for an upset win or two, but will likely struggle, putting themselves at the top of the draft. With Johnny Manziel in the fold, the Browns will need to start loading up on talent to surround him and getting another elite tackle to join Joe Thomas could give Manziel some of the best protection in the league and Peat could do just that. Also, Cleveland has Buffalo’s first round pick, which I think will be very nice, so they can pick up the big time receiver that they need with the other pick.
4. Cleveland (From Buffalo) – Amari Cooper WR Alabama
5. Minnesota – Randy Gregory DE Nebraska
6. Houston – Marcus Mariota QB Oregon
Mariota has been anointed the top quarterback in the 2015 by pretty much all of the pundits and is penciled in by most to be the top pick taken in the draft. That has seemed to be a ominous position as of late (see Jake Locker, Matt Barkley and Teddy Bridgewater), but there is no reason to not put Mariota there right now. Still, I have him sliding here from the first pick a bit because I have teams that all have rookie quarterbacks that they should give a second year and I don’t think Mariota is the kind of guy that you need to cut ties with any of those quarterbacks to get.
I think the Texans will get out of the cellar with their front of J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, but their offense is a mess and they desperately need a franchise quarterback. The choice here would be between Mariota and Winston and while I think Winston has more upside, his baggage will make Mariota the easy choice.
7. NYJets – Jameis Winston QB Florida State
8. Tennessee – Brett Hundley QB UCLA
People seem to be selling Hundley’s stock, but he still might have the best physical tools of any quarterback in the country, and a successful 2014 season could easily rocket him to the very top of the draft board. Hundley reminds me a bit of Jake Locker and I think he will end up like Locker did with excellent physical tools and some impressive performances, but ultimately lacking in poise and polish – leaving school as a guy who just never seemed to put it all together. The good news for Hundley is that (also like Locker) his physical skills will simply be impossible to pass up once the most-polished QBs are off the board.
Speaking of Locker, I just don’t think he will be able to take the Titans to the next level and if he can’t in 2014 it will be time for them to move on. This would be a tough spot for them with Mariota and Winston off the board and they might be wary of another Locker type like Hundley, but ultimately I think they have to jump on the top quarterback on the board at this point, even if he has some serious question marks.
9. Washington – Shillique Calhoun DE Michigan State
10. Tampa Bay – Bryce Petty QB Baylor
11. Miami – Vic Beasley DE Clemson
12. Detroit – P.J. Williams CB Florida State
13. NYGiants – Brandon Scherff T Iowa
14. Atlanta – Todd Gurley RB Georgia
15. Dallas – Mario Edwards DE Florida State
16. Pittsburgh – Ronald Darby CB Florida State
17. San Diego – Devonte Fields DE TCU
18. Chicago – Trae Waynes CB Michigan State
19. Arizona – Cameron Erving T Florida State
Ekpre-Olomu could have been the first cornerback taken in 2014 if he had declared, but he is young for his class and decided to come back for his senior season. He doesn’t have ideal height, but he has excellent strength, ball skills and is valuable in run defense. I don’t think he will be a combine standout, so I think he will fall behind a few other cornerback prospects, but will ultimately stick in the first round.
I think either Arizona or St. Louis will slip into the playoffs and I
20. Carolina – Landon Collins S Alabama
21. Baltimore – La’el Collins T LSU
22. St. Louis – T.J. Yeldon RB Alabama
23. Philadelphia – Ifo Ekpre-Olomu CB Oregon
Ekpre-Olomu could have been the first cornerback taken in 2014 if he had declared, but he is young for his class and decided to come back for his senior season. He doesn’t have ideal height, but he has excellent strength, ball skills and is valuable in run defense. I don’t think he will be a combine standout, so I think he will fall behind a few other cornerback prospects, but will ultimately stick in the first round.
I like Philadelphia’s future under Chip Kelly, especially in a weak NFC East, but they probably still aren’t ready to fight with the big boys like San Francisco and Seattle until they get a better defense, especially in the secondary where Kelly’s former player Ekpre-Olomu could really help out.
24. Kansas City – Jaelen Strong WR Arizona State
At 6’4 with a huge wingspan, Strong is a dream target for quarterback due to his huge catch radius. His production was huge in 2013 and I think he can produce even more in 2014 as a one-two punch with Taylor Kelly, giving his draft stock a huge boost.
The Chiefs could use a true franchise quarterback, but they aren’t going to be in the vicinity where one will still be available, so a playmaker at receiver is probably the next best option and Strong looks like the best available after Amari Cooper.
25. Green Bay – Jalen Collins CB LSU
26. Cincinnati – Anthony Harris S Virginia
27. New England – Shawn Oakman DE Baylor
28. New Orleans – Jordan Jenkins LB Georgia
29. Denver – Markus Golden DE Missouri
30. Seattle – Noah Spence DE Ohio State
31. Indianapolis – Melvin Gordon RB Wisconsin
32. San Francisco – Cedric Reed DE Texas