clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Week 11 Pac-12 lines breakdown with

Peter Loshak from SportsBookReview goes over this week's Pac-12 betting lines.

Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports provides an exclusive look at the Pac-12 betting lines for us each week.

USC at Colorado +16.5, 61

From a wins and losses perspective, USC has been resilient over the past 3 games and salvaged their season with a run of straight up wins. But from an ATS perspective, they haven't been dominant, covering just 2 of those games, with one of the covers by just a point and a half.Colorado has also covered 2 out of their last 3 games, including an impressive loss by only 4 points as a 22.5-point closing underdog at UCLA.Colorado did get blown out ATS while getting big points at home against Stanford last week, but they're still clearly a legitimate threat to cover at any time when they're a big underdog.USC has two huge games coming up after this week where they'll be looking to complete their resurgence, on the road at Oregon and then at home against UCLA, so this might be a bit of a look-ahead spot for them. They're also dealing with an array of minor to moderate injuries on both sides of the ball.The spread has gotten bet up since opening from public action on USC, but sharper action may well drive the line back down closer to kickoff.

Washington at Arizona St -2.5, 52.5

Washington and Arizona St have both been relatively bad bets recently, with the Huskies having lost 4 of their last 6 ATS, and the Sun Devils having lost their last 3 in a row ATS, and standing at 2-7 ATS overall on the year.Turnovers have been a key factor for both teams as well. Washington actually might have beaten tough Utah last week if they hadn't gotten badly burned in the turnover battle, with the Utes scoring 24 points off of 4 Washington turnovers to Washington getting just 3 points off of three Utah turnovers. And Arizona St has a minus-6 turnover margin that is the worst in the Pac-12.This game will likely come down to how Washington's unreliable offensive line handles Arizona St's aggressive blitzing defense, that can disrupt opponents' offensive game plans when it's successful, but is also prone to giving up big plays when it's not.No notable sharp action as yet has come in to give an indication on which is more likely, and may not come in at all by kickoff.

Oregon at Stanford -10, 69

Oregon and Stanford both come into this game with momentum from both a straight up and ATS perspective.Stanford has been nothing short of amazing since their opening-week loss to Northwestern. They once again have the best defense in the Pac-12, and this year have combined that with an offense that started out better than usual for a Stanford team, and has steadily improved as the season has worn on.Stanford is 7-1 ATS since the Northwestern game, and the one ATS loss was very forgivable, coming against Washington St, a team that was clearly mispriced by the market this year in Pac-12 play. And even that ATS loss to Washington St was Washington St's lowest margin of cover out of all of their conference games so far.On the other side, Oregon has made big strides since getting healthier over the past few weeks, and they have covered 4 out of their last 5 games, with their only ATS loss also somewhat forgivably coming at the hands of Washington St. Giving Oregon 10 points is tough, but Stanford may have value even at that line. Oregon has traditionally struggled against elite physical opponents, which is exactly what Stanford is, and they're executing it this season in mint form.

Utah at Arizona +6, 62

The pressure will be on Utah this week as a road favorite against Arizona. Utah is looking to win out to get to the Pac-12 title game, but this game could be a challenge for them despite their clear overall talent edge over Arizona this season.Arizona's defense is repeatedly getting gashed this year, and their banged-up offensive line should be vulnerable against Utah's strong defensive front seven. But Arizona is a desperate team, at home where they usually have a big home field advantage, and playing in their last home game getting decent points, which taken in aggregate is a dangerous situation to bet against.The line has gotten bet up since opening but it would not be a surprise to see it take a significant dip by kickoff, which would likely indicate sharp action.

Oregon St at Cal -21.5, 59.5

Cal's season has fallen into a tailspin over the past month, with the Bears having lost 4 in a row, and having gone 1-3 ATS in that span. All four games were against strong competition though, and Cal takes a huge step down in class this week at home against Oregon St, a team that is having serious issues in every facet of the game.Oregon St got shut out at home last week by UCLA, dropping them to a terrible 2-7 ATS on the year, and their already-thin and talent-poor roster has been getting hit with injuries. This is a dangerous spot for them going up against a capable opponent looking to become bowl eligible with a win and probably eager to take out frustrations in front of a home crowd.This line has gotten bet up a bit since it opened, and my guess is that it will get bet significantly higher by kickoff. I personally bet it at -20, and would take it at the current line of -21.5 as well.

Washington St at UCLA -10.5, 65.5

Washington St is on a truly remarkable ATS run, especially considering they've done it in the tough, competitive and unpredictable Pac-12; they've covered 6 conference games in a row, each one by a margin of at least 8 points against their closing lines.The spread for this game, however, has actually gotten bet up since opening, despite the public starting to bet on Washington St at a higher rate than previous weeks. Some early big money did come in on UCLA, which pushed the line higher.UCLA's strong run game will pose a threat to the Cougars' run defense, and also serve to keep Washington St's impressive passing offense off the field. Washington St could deliver a dud at any time, but it's risky to try to time when that might happen, in light of how obviously and substantially they have been undervalued by the market so far this year.There is a stark sharp/public split developing on the total though, which could indicate the best way to bet the game. As of Thursday, the public was heavily favoring the over, which is not a surprise. But sharp action has come in on the other side, taking the under, and that pronounced split will likely hold by kickoff.