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Earlier this month, Sports Illustrated published a lengthy article explaining its 351 team season preview, using a healthy mixture of returning talent, freshmen classes, head coaching, home court advantage, strength of schedule and a number of other factors to simulate the upcoming season 10,000 times.
The final results produced offensive and defensive efficiency projections (points scored/allowed per 100 possessions), which is then translated to a Pythagorean win percentage expectation. The Pythagorean win expectation is a projection that uses points scored/points allowed to determine a win percentage, first developed by Bill James.
Using these data, I created binomial distributions for each team to project the probability of each team ending up with a specified win-loss record. The number of games does not include the NCAA Tournament, Pac-12 Tournament or later rounds of early season tournaments that have not yet been determined.
Arizona Wildcats
Efficiency Rating Projections: 115.3 Off/93.8 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 85.25
Average Win-Loss Record: 25.57-4.43
Key Non-Conference Games: Michigan State* (11/11), Gonzaga* (12/3), Texas A&M* (12/17), New Mexico (12/20)
| Win-Loss Record (30 Games) | Probability |
| 26-4 | 20.47% |
| 25-5 | 18.42% |
| 27-3 | 17.52% |
| 24-6 | 13.28% |
| 28-2 | 10.85% |
Arizona State Sun Devils
Efficiency Rating Projections: 109.4 Off/99.8 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 68.58
Average Win-Loss Record: 19.89-9.11
Key Non-Conference Games: Kentucky* (11/28), Purdue* (12/6), @ San Diego State (12/10), Creighton (12/20)
| Win-Loss Record (29 Games) | Probability |
| 20-9 | 15.83% |
| 21-8 | 14.81% |
| 19-10 | 14.50% |
| 22-7 | 11.76% |
| 18-11 | 11.48% |
California Golden Bears
Efficiency Rating Projections: 111.7 Off/94.3 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 80.84
Average Win-Loss Projection: 24.25-5.75
Key Non-Conference Games: San Diego State* (11/21), Princeton* (12/6), Seton Hall* (12/7), Virginia (12/21)
| Win-Loss Record (30 Games) | Probability |
| 25-5 | 18.05% |
| 24-6 | 17.83% |
| 26-4 | 14.64% |
| 23-7 | 14.49% |
| 22-8 | 9.87% |
Colorado Buffaloes
Efficiency Rating Projections: 108.5 Off/96.6 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 72.86
Average Win-Loss Projection: 21.86-8.14
Key Non-Conference Games: Notre Dame* (11/21), Xavier (12/7), @ BYU (12/10)
| Win-Loss Record (30 Games) | Probability |
| 22-8 | 16.26% |
| 23-7 | 15.18% |
| 21-9 | 14.80% |
| 24-6 | 11.88% |
| 20-10 | 11.58% |
Oregon Ducks
Efficiency Rating Projections: 120.1 Off/93.9 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 89.01
Average Win-Loss Projection: 25.81-3.19
Key Non-Conference Games: @ Baylor (11/15), Valparaiso (11/17), Georgetown* (11/21)
| Win-Loss Record (29 Games) | Probability |
| 26-3 | 23.51% |
| 27-2 | 21.15% |
| 25-4 | 18.86% |
| 28-1 | 12.24% |
| 24-5 | 11.65% |
Oregon State Beavers
Efficiency Rating Projections: 109.4 Off/99.1 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 69.86
Average Win-Loss Projection: 21.66-9.34
Key Non-Conference Games: @ Nevada (11/18), @ Tulsa (11/22)
| Win-Loss Record (31 Games) | Probability |
| 22-9 | 15.48% |
| 21-10 | 14.49% |
| 23-8 | 14.04% |
| 20-11 | 12.11% |
| 24-7 | 10.84% |
Stanford Cardinal
Efficiency Rating Projections: 109.3 Off/99.2 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 69.51
Average Win-Loss Projection: 19.46-8.54
Key Non-Conference Games: Harvard* (11/11), Miami FL* (11/24), Saint Mary's (11/30), @ Kansas (12/3)
| Win-Loss Record (28 Games) | Probability |
| 20-8 | 16.09% |
| 19-9 | 15.69% |
| 21-7 | 13.98% |
| 18-10 | 13.07% |
| 22-6 | 10.14% |
UCLA Bruins
Efficiency Rating Projections: 116.7 Off/98.2 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 81.26
Average Win-Loss Projection: 23.57-5.43
Key Non-Conference Games: @ Kentucky (12/3), Michigan (12/10), Ohio State* (12/17)
| Win-Loss Record (29 Games) | Probability |
| 24-5 | 18.86% |
| 23-6 | 17.39% |
| 25-4 | 16.36% |
| 22-7 | 13.18% |
| 26-3 | 10.91% |
USC Trojans
Efficiency Rating Projections: 112.9 Off/98.4 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 76.29
Average Win-Loss Projection: 22.89-7.11
Key Non-Conference Games: @ Texas A&M (11/18), SMU (11/25), BYU* (12/3)
| Win-Loss Record (30 Games) | Probability |
| 23-7 | 16.98% |
| 24-6 | 15.93% |
| 22-8 | 15.18% |
| 25-5 | 12.30% |
| 21-9 | 11.53% |
Utah Utes
Efficiency Rating Projections: 112.7 Off/98.7 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 75.54
Average Win-Loss Projection: 21.15-6.85
Key Non-Conference Games: Butler (11/28), @ Xavier (12/10)
| Win-Loss Record (28 Games) | Probability |
| 21-7 | 17.15% |
| 22-6 | 16.85% |
| 20-8 | 14.5% |
| 23-5 | 13.57% |
| 19-9 | 10.49% |
Washington Huskies
Efficiency Rating Projections: 110.3 Off/99.4 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 70.77
Average Win-Loss Projection: 20.52-8.48
Key Non-Conference Games: Yale (11/13), @ Gonzaga (12/7), Nevada (12/11)
| Win-Loss Record (29 Games) | Probability |
| 21-8 | 16.08% |
| 20-9 | 15.49% |
| 22-7 | 14.16% |
| 19-10 | 12.79% |
| 23-6 | 10.43% |
Washington State Cougars
Efficiency Rating Projections: 107.1 Off/104.9 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 54.39
Average Win-Loss Projection: 15.23-12.77
Key Non-Conference Games: Creighton* (11/18), Kansas State* (12/10)
| Win-Loss Record (28 Games) | Probability |
| 15-13 | 14.92% |
| 16-12 | 14.66% |
| 14-14 | 13.40% |
| 17-11 | 12.18% |
| 13-15 | 10.49% |
Where does your favorite team stand? Feel free to comment below whether you believe your team will win more or less games than projected.