clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Pac-12 Basketball: Projecting Win Totals

Which Pac-12 team will rack up the most victories this season?

NCAA Basketball: Maui Invitational Game 8 UCLA Bruins v Kansas Jayhawks Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Earlier this month, Sports Illustrated published a lengthy article explaining its 351 team season preview, using a healthy mixture of returning talent, freshmen classes, head coaching, home court advantage, strength of schedule and a number of other factors to simulate the upcoming season 10,000 times.

The final results produced offensive and defensive efficiency projections (points scored/allowed per 100 possessions), which is then translated to a Pythagorean win percentage expectation. The Pythagorean win expectation is a projection that uses points scored/points allowed to determine a win percentage, first developed by Bill James.

Using these data, I created binomial distributions for each team to project the probability of each team ending up with a specified win-loss record. The number of games does not include the NCAA Tournament, Pac-12 Tournament or later rounds of early season tournaments that have not yet been determined.

Arizona Wildcats

Efficiency Rating Projections: 115.3 Off/93.8 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 85.25
Average Win-Loss Record: 25.57-4.43
Key Non-Conference Games: Michigan State* (11/11), Gonzaga* (12/3), Texas A&M* (12/17), New Mexico (12/20)

Win-Loss Record (30 Games) Probability
26-4 20.47%
25-5 18.42%
27-3 17.52%
24-6 13.28%
28-2 10.85%


Arizona State Sun Devils

Efficiency Rating Projections: 109.4 Off/99.8 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 68.58
Average Win-Loss Record: 19.89-9.11
Key Non-Conference Games: Kentucky* (11/28), Purdue* (12/6), @ San Diego State (12/10), Creighton (12/20)

Win-Loss Record (29 Games) Probability
20-9 15.83%
21-8 14.81%
19-10 14.50%
22-7 11.76%
18-11 11.48%


California Golden Bears

Efficiency Rating Projections: 111.7 Off/94.3 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 80.84
Average Win-Loss Projection: 24.25-5.75
Key Non-Conference Games: San Diego State* (11/21), Princeton* (12/6), Seton Hall* (12/7), Virginia (12/21)

Win-Loss Record (30 Games) Probability
25-5 18.05%
24-6 17.83%
26-4 14.64%
23-7 14.49%
22-8 9.87%

Colorado Buffaloes

Efficiency Rating Projections: 108.5 Off/96.6 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 72.86
Average Win-Loss Projection: 21.86-8.14
Key Non-Conference Games: Notre Dame* (11/21), Xavier (12/7), @ BYU (12/10)

Win-Loss Record (30 Games) Probability
22-8 16.26%
23-7 15.18%
21-9 14.80%
24-6 11.88%
20-10 11.58%

Oregon Ducks

Efficiency Rating Projections: 120.1 Off/93.9 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 89.01
Average Win-Loss Projection: 25.81-3.19
Key Non-Conference Games: @ Baylor (11/15), Valparaiso (11/17), Georgetown* (11/21)

Win-Loss Record (29 Games) Probability
26-3 23.51%
27-2 21.15%
25-4 18.86%
28-1 12.24%
24-5 11.65%

Oregon State Beavers

Efficiency Rating Projections: 109.4 Off/99.1 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 69.86
Average Win-Loss Projection: 21.66-9.34
Key Non-Conference Games: @ Nevada (11/18), @ Tulsa (11/22)

Win-Loss Record (31 Games) Probability
22-9 15.48%
21-10 14.49%
23-8 14.04%
20-11 12.11%
24-7 10.84%

Stanford Cardinal

Efficiency Rating Projections: 109.3 Off/99.2 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 69.51
Average Win-Loss Projection: 19.46-8.54
Key Non-Conference Games: Harvard* (11/11), Miami FL* (11/24), Saint Mary's (11/30), @ Kansas (12/3)

Win-Loss Record (28 Games) Probability
20-8 16.09%
19-9 15.69%
21-7 13.98%
18-10 13.07%
22-6 10.14%


UCLA Bruins

Efficiency Rating Projections: 116.7 Off/98.2 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 81.26
Average Win-Loss Projection: 23.57-5.43
Key Non-Conference Games: @ Kentucky (12/3), Michigan (12/10), Ohio State* (12/17)

Win-Loss Record (29 Games) Probability
24-5 18.86%
23-6 17.39%
25-4 16.36%
22-7 13.18%
26-3 10.91%

USC Trojans

Efficiency Rating Projections: 112.9 Off/98.4 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 76.29
Average Win-Loss Projection: 22.89-7.11
Key Non-Conference Games: @ Texas A&M (11/18), SMU (11/25), BYU* (12/3)

Win-Loss Record (30 Games) Probability
23-7 16.98%
24-6 15.93%
22-8 15.18%
25-5 12.30%
21-9 11.53%

Utah Utes

Efficiency Rating Projections: 112.7 Off/98.7 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 75.54
Average Win-Loss Projection: 21.15-6.85
Key Non-Conference Games: Butler (11/28), @ Xavier (12/10)

Win-Loss Record (28 Games) Probability
21-7 17.15%
22-6 16.85%
20-8 14.5%
23-5 13.57%
19-9 10.49%

Washington Huskies

Efficiency Rating Projections: 110.3 Off/99.4 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 70.77
Average Win-Loss Projection: 20.52-8.48
Key Non-Conference Games: Yale (11/13), @ Gonzaga (12/7), Nevada (12/11)

Win-Loss Record (29 Games) Probability
21-8 16.08%
20-9 15.49%
22-7 14.16%
19-10 12.79%
23-6 10.43%

Washington State Cougars

Efficiency Rating Projections: 107.1 Off/104.9 Def
Pythagorean Win % Projection: 54.39
Average Win-Loss Projection: 15.23-12.77
Key Non-Conference Games: Creighton* (11/18), Kansas State* (12/10)

Win-Loss Record (28 Games) Probability
15-13 14.92%
16-12 14.66%
14-14 13.40%
17-11 12.18%
13-15 10.49%

Where does your favorite team stand? Feel free to comment below whether you believe your team will win more or less games than projected.