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Identifying statistics and analytics that aren’t influenced by outside factors in sports is no easy task.
I have recently created a formula, however, that filters out a given team’s strength in order to determine how much true value a player holds. I call it Individual Efficiency Margin.
For those who aren’t familiar with tempo-free stats, basketball has now been boiled down to possession-by-possession stats to better understand the game, most notably showcased by the highly popularized efficiency ratings - complex measures of points scored/allowed per 100 possessions. As far as wins and losses are concerned, the stat is fairly simple: if a team’s offensive efficiency rating is higher than its defensive rating, the team will always win. (You always want to score more points per possession than you allow.)
Two noteworthy names on the basketball analytics Mount Rushmore, Dean Oliver and Ken Pomeroy, have found great value in individual efficiency ratings and “net” ratings, which are computed simply by subtracting offensive rating by defensive rating. (UCLA’s Lonzo Ball has recorded an offensive rating of 136.6 and defensive rating of 98.1 through 11 games this season, giving the freshman a +38.5 net rating.)
Using each Pac-12 player’s net efficiency rating, their team’s ratings, and average ratings for the D-1 this season, I compiled a complete list of efficiency margin ratings that are not specific to any given team. This means that net efficiency ratings will not be impacted by a team’s strength, so a UCLA and Oregon State player will be weighted equally.
Minute percentage (a measure of how many possible minutes a player appears on the floor) also plays the role of filtering out players that have skyrocketed up rankings due to small sample size. The entire list of Pac-12 individual efficiency margins is attached below:
Player | School | Min % | Indiv Eff Margin |
Lauri Markkanen | Arizona | 78.8 | 20.2441419972 |
Josh Hawkinson | Washington State | 83.9 | 17.6562835525 |
Drew Eubanks | Oregon State | 70.7 | 16.3440288483 |
Chris Boucher | Oregon | 66.4 | 15.049532562 |
Reid Travis | Stanford | 77.5 | 13.8181393178 |
De'Anthony Melton | USC | 62.5 | 12.5021451053 |
Grant Verhoeven | Stanford | 34.2 | 12.4822360537 |
Markelle Fultz | Washington | 83.3 | 11.3543764949 |
Tyler Rawson | Utah | 68.8 | 11.329404682 |
Tres Tinkle | Oregon State | 57.3 | 10.501382951 |
Matisse Thybulle | Washington | 63.6 | 9.4977363018 |
Daine Muller | Oregon State | 35.1 | 9.0542110329 |
TJ Leaf | UCLA | 74.1 | 8.6621048031 |
Kingsley Okoroh | California | 58.8 | 7.0348910682 |
Xavier Johnson | Colorado | 69.5 | 7.0255485579 |
Shannon Evans | Arizona State | 83 | 7.0136443667 |
Dorian Pickens | Stanford | 76.9 | 6.7003919403 |
Conor Clifford | Washington State | 48.1 | 6.1944735444 |
Devon Daniels | Utah | 60.8 | 6.0283747032 |
Deleon Brown | Colorado | 27.8 | 5.895568674 |
Lonzo Ball | UCLA | 85.5 | 5.8503785887 |
Thomas Welsh | UCLA | 52.3 | 5.7247440951 |
Derrick White | Colorado | 76.2 | 5.4158496403 |
Malachi Flynn | Washington State | 80.6 | 5.005241834 |
Kendal Manuel | Oregon State | 49.6 | 4.9126850362 |
Torian Graham | Arizona State | 76.8 | 4.7437734049 |
Kameron Rooks | California | 21.2 | 4.3838821137 |
Roman Sorkin | Oregon | 11.1 | 4.1195870076 |
Ivan Rabb | California | 58.5 | 3.9992889785 |
Charlie Moore | California | 78.5 | 3.7997420848 |
Cameron Walker | Stanford | 8.1 | 3.7061260358 |
Jeff Pollard | Washington State | 18.6 | 3.5878121393 |
Elijah Stewart | USC | 75 | 2.981986401 |
Keanu Pinder | Arizona | 41.8 | 2.9615045268 |
Jordan McLaughlin | USC | 81.1 | 2.5545531399 |
Kodi Justice | Arizona State | 60.5 | 2.1802138078 |
Obinna Oleka | Arizona State | 77 | 1.6627088955 |
Cole Welle | California | 5.6 | 1.5908348115 |
Dylan Ennis | Oregon | 76.8 | 1.535082314 |
Jayce Johnson | Utah | 36.7 | 1.5078952995 |
Maurice O'Field | Arizona State | 5.2 | 1.3052996394 |
Roger Moute a Bidias | California | 55.4 | 1.1759298361 |
Roman Davis | California | 4.4 | 1.0352231544 |
Chimezie Metu | USC | 73.9 | 1.0025419873 |
Alec Wulff | UCLA | 3.4 | 0.8280472441 |
Wesley Gordon | Colorado | 65 | 0.7999886783 |
Isaac Wulff | UCLA | 2 | 0.6594567726 |
Noah Dickerson | Washington | 65 | 0.5768217553 |
Charles Buggs | USC | 17.2 | 0.5363471657 |
Jakub Jokl | Utah | 3.3 | 0.4975712387 |
Ramon Vila | Arizona State | 33.2 | 0.3255597434 |
Viont'e Daniels | Washington State | 17.8 | 0.3091546135 |
JoJo Zamora | Utah | 63.8 | 0.25735509 |
Tra Holder | Arizona State | 77 | 0.0251421699 |
Ben Kone | Oregon State | 2.7 | -0.046315684 |
Dominique Collier | Colorado | 6.5 | -0.0587979463 |
Jake Connor | Utah | 7.5 | -0.1218601508 |
Greg Bowman | Washington | 2.8 | -0.1423427522 |
Steven Shpreyregin | Washington State | 2.8 | -0.1603080434 |
Ike Iroegbu | Washington State | 80.6 | -0.2335343061 |
Grant Mullins | California | 52.9 | -0.2690202524 |
Parker Jackson-Cartwright | Arizona | 51 | -0.4140922531 |
Malik Dime | Washington | 61.7 | -0.4315145433 |
Dan Kingma | Washington | 3.3 | -0.4579193025 |
Jabari Bird | California | 26.8 | -0.5369521903 |
Ike Anigbogu | UCLA | 5.5 | -0.5524349366 |
Kurt Karis | USC | 3.1 | -0.7699830876 |
David Crisp | Washington | 73.1 | -1.0878330688 |
George King | Colorado | 67.2 | -1.1008358731 |
Tyler Dorsey | Oregon | 75.3 | -1.1575637707 |
Bitumba Baruti | Washington | 4.2 | -1.1915055966 |
Rawle Alkins | Arizona | 74.8 | -1.3122107723 |
Dusan Ristic | Arizona | 57.5 | -1.3338619304 |
Matthew Atewe | Washington | 9.4 | -1.6729462779 |
Gyorgy Goloman | UCLA | 29.6 | -1.6753597169 |
Charles Callison | Washington State | 55.6 | -1.6779814179 |
Jerrold Smith | UCLA | 3.4 | -1.6974745009 |
Bryce Alford | UCLA | 82.7 | -1.7826579631 |
Keith Smith | Oregon | 16.8 | -1.879203416 |
Dillon Brooks | Oregon | 33.3 | -1.952275186 |
Josh Fortune | Colorado | 63.5 | -1.9573986248 |
Nick Rakocevic | USC | 38.6 | -1.9911089408 |
Matt Dahlen | Oregon State | 28.5 | -2.2122828726 |
Kobi Simmons | Arizona | 73 | -2.2208080229 |
Cheikh N'diaye | Oregon State | 24.7 | -2.2307687967 |
Kyle Kuzma | Utah | 84.6 | -2.2971939401 |
Jordan Bell | Oregon | 69.9 | -2.4510356371 |
Kavell Bigby-Williams | Oregon | 25.2 | -2.5029868182 |
Parker Van Dyke | Utah | 61.2 | -2.7466338834 |
Tory Miller | Colorado | 25.2 | -2.7711385636 |
Shaqquan Aaron | USC | 61.9 | -2.8307224766 |
Harrison Henderson | USC | 6.9 | -2.9433888595 |
Beau Rydalch | Utah | 7.1 | -3.2112318027 |
Josh Sharma | Stanford | 28.9 | -3.2403635267 |
Dominic Green | Washington | 54.2 | -3.3288651678 |
Carlos Johnson | Washington | 34.2 | -3.407907087 |
Devenir Duruisseau | Washington | 9.4 | -3.8625496963 |
Trevor Stanback | Stanford | 5.8 | -3.9794888394 |
Jethro Tshisumpa | Arizona State | 18.5 | -3.9996142413 |
KJ Langston | Washington State | 18.3 | -4.1670140443 |
Stephen Thompson Jr. | Oregon State | 38.1 | -4.270183386 |
Aaron Holiday | UCLA | 65.2 | -4.2941937161 |
Michael Humphrey | Stanford | 50.6 | -4.3365101475 |
Jonah Mathews | USC | 43.6 | -4.5779249841 |
Gligorije Rakocevic | Oregon State | 22.7 | -4.6282954236 |
Robert Franks | Washington State | 40.3 | -4.6833655937 |
Christian Sanders | Stanford | 50 | -4.7788576555 |
Gabe Bealer | Utah | 23.3 | -4.792382784 |
Sam Singer | California | 69 | -5.1635113607 |
Kadeem Allen | Arizona | 67 | -5.1738913926 |
Chance Comanche | Arizona | 45 | -5.1866519489 |
Casey Benson | Oregon | 52.4 | -5.2040032691 |
Tanner Sanders | Oregon State | 18.9 | -5.4103981778 |
Lorenzo Bonam | Utah | 79.6 | -5.672568723 |
Bennie Boatwright | USC | 34.2 | -5.7427756774 |
Don Coleman | California | 24.9 | -6.0141645299 |
Bryce Peters | Colorado | 31.2 | -6.0458621801 |
Robert Cartwright | Stanford | 59.4 | -6.3565589713 |
Jaquori McLaughlin | Oregon State | 79.7 | -6.3642796707 |
Thomas Akyazili | Colorado | 36.5 | -7.0786380418 |
Payton Pritchard | Oregon | 71.1 | -7.4406354029 |
Lucas Siewert | Colorado | 29.2 | -7.9223247782 |
Isaac Hamilton | UCLA | 77 | -7.9823553843 |
Keondre Dew | Oregon State | 17.8 | -8.0175273949 |
Sam Timmins | Washington | 34.4 | -9.6209271421 |
Ronnie Stacy | Oregon State | 54.2 | -10.1810399895 |
Marcus Sheffield | Stanford | 46.4 | -10.3582239524 |
Sam Cunliffe | Arizona State | 63.5 | -11.536128237 |
Marcus Allen | Stanford | 58.3 | -15.4075612141 |
Stephen Domingo | California | 40.2 | -15.6244402223 |
Derrien King | Washington State | 53.6 | -17.7392309691 |
Median | 50.6 | -0.5524349366 | |
Average | 45.3908396947 | -0.1047920099 | |
St Dev | 26.4600059608 | 6.327197523 |
Washington State forward Josh Hawkinson (who has single-handedly held together the Cougar program the past three seasons) has a 112.8/95.8 efficiency slash line through 10 games, which may seem like a decent mark to some, but is fairly significant when you consider the strength of his WSU team. Washington State is one of very few power conference teams in the country with a negative efficiency margin in conference play, further showing Hawkinson’s worth to the Cougars.
Drew Eubanks and Markelle Fultz, two players that do not rank in the top 15 in the Pac-12 in offensive or defensive efficiency, are other examples of quality players on weak teams that continue to log strong efficiency margins.
Conversely, UCLA’s T.J. Leaf leads the league in offensive efficiency with a blistering 141.6 rating, but due to the Bruins’ historic offensive start this season, he doesn’t carry nearly as much relative value to his team as players like Hawkinson, Eubanks or Fultz.
These numbers will constantly fluctuate as the season progresses and efficiency numbers rebalance, but non-team specific efficiency margins should be something on every basketball stat geek’s radar. Look for more on this subject in the near future.