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The Oregon Ducks are in Glendale this weekend as it hopes to capture its first national championship since 1939.
From Dillon Brooks’ game-winners to Chris Boucher’s season-ending injury, Oregon has had its fair share of peaks and troughs in its best season in modern history.
The explosion of Tyler Dorsey (24.5 PPG in NCAA Tournament) and Jordan Bell (8 blocks in Elite Eight victory over Kansas) over the past two weeks have been a pleasant surprise, as most projected go-to guy Dillon Brooks would guide Oregon through the course of the tournament.
To better understand the player progression this season from the Ducks, I used Dean Oliver’s method of rolling offensive and defensive efficiencies, which shows the trends over the season for each player.
For the sake of this data set, I compiled the rolling average of three games apiece. This shows portions of the season where players excelled and struggled on both sides of the floor. As a reminder, the numbers below indicate the points scored (on offense) and allowed (on defense) per 100 possessions. NCAA average is approximately 105, or 1.05 points per possession.
Rolling average, in this case, is an average of three consecutive games at any point over the course of the season, not including the first two games. For example, Dillon Brooks had a rolling offensive efficiency average of 96 after the conclusion of the Boise State game, which means he averaged 0.96 points per possession in the three-game stretch that included Tennessee, Connecticut and Boise State.
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Because offensive and defensive efficiencies can tell us only so much, here are the best and worst stretches in simple box score stats for each active Oregon player:
Oregon Ducks Individual Best & Worst Stretches of the Season
| Player | Best Offensive Stretch | Stats | Worst Offensive Stretch | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Best Offensive Stretch | Stats | Worst Offensive Stretch | Stats |
| Dillon Brooks | Stanford, OSU, ASU (#30-32) | 20.3 PPG, 3.0 APG, 60.0 FG% (24-40), 8 TO | Tennessee, Uconn, BSU (#5-7) | 10.3 PPG, 2.0 APG, 33.3 FG% (8-24), 8 TO |
| Tyler Dorsey | ASU, Cal, Arizona (#32-34) | 22.3 PPG, 57.1 FG% (24-42), 47.4 3P% (9-19), 5 TO | Valparaiso, G'Town, Tennessee (#3-5) | 5.7 PPG, 26.1 FG% (6-23), 11.1 3P% (1-9), 9 TO |
| Jordan Bell | USC, Utah, Colorado (#26-28) | 11.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 3.7 APG, 63.6 FG% (14-22), TO | G'Town, Tennessee, Uconn (#4-6) | 10.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 47.8 FG%, 13 TO |
| Dylan Ennis | UW, WSU, OSU (#16-18) | 13.7 PPG, 5.3 APG, 55.6 FG% (15-27), 3 TO | Army, Baylor, Valparaiso (#1-3) | 7.0 PPG, 1.7 APG, 26.9 FG% (7-26), 6 TO |
| Payton Pritchard | Utah, Colorado, Cal (#27-29) | 5.7 PPG, 7.3 APG, 45.5 FG% (5-11), 7 TO | Tennessee, Uconn, BSU (#5-7) | 4.3 PPG, 1.0 APG, 31.3 FG% (5-16), 5 TO |
| Casey Benson | Cal, Stanford, Utah (#19-21) | 9.3 PPG, 3.7 APG, 69.2 FG% (8-13), 3 TO | Cal, Arizona, Iona (#33-35) | 3.3 PPG, 1.0 APG, 33.3 FG% (4-12), 3 TO |
| Kavell Bigby-Williams | Arizona, Iona, URI (#34-36) | 4.0 PPG, 50.0 FG% (4-8) | Montana, UNLV, Fresno St (#11-13) | 3.0 PPG, 42.9 FG% (3-7), 5 TO |
| Keith Smith | USC, UW, WSU (#15-17) | 3.7 PPG, 66.7 FG% (4-6), 1 TO | G'Town, Tennessee, Uconn (#4-6) | 0.0 PPG, 0.0 FG% (0-3) |
Surprisingly enough, Tyler Dorsey and Kavell Bigby-Williams are the only Ducks that are truly playing at their most efficient level all season. Dillon Brooks tore it up to start conference play, Payton Pritchard has been fairly steady throughout the year, Casey Benson was hot to begin the season but has plateaued since and Dylan Ennis’ defense has tailed off recently.
Water always finds its level, so maybe the spells good news for the Ducks this weekend. We’ll see if the trends continue Saturday evening.
What are your thoughts on Oregon’s run to the Final Four? Leave a comment below or tweet at @boettger_eli and @PacificTakes.
(All stats used in this article are courtesy of Sports Reference.)