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How recent Pac-12 draftees have translated to the NBA

Washington’s Fultz and UCLA’s Ball expect to be the first players taken in this year’s draft.

NCAA Basketball: Washington at Washington State James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

In just a few weeks from now, Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball and Lauri Markkanen will expect to be drafted in the first 16 picks of the 2017 NBA Draft.

Until then, I will breaking down the Pac-12’s NBA prospects for this year, but I wanted to begin by taking a look at what recent Pac-12 pros have accomplished.

The first graph shows each Pac-12 draftee since 2012, with its college win shares per season and NBA win shares per season. There is some correlation to college success, but not nearly as much as I anticipated.

Also, in table format.

Pac-12 NBA players, 2012-2016

Year Name Team Pick College WS/Season NBA WS/Season
Year Name Team Pick College WS/Season NBA WS/Season
2016 Jaylen Brown California 3 2.7 1.5
2016 Marquese Chriss Washington 8 3.1 1.7
2016 Jakob Poeltl Utah 9 5.5 1.3
2016 Dejounte Murray Washington 29 2.8 0
2016 Tyrone Wallace California 60 2.7 N/A
2015 Stanley Johnson Arizona 8 5.7 0.5
2015 Delon Wright Utah 20 7.9 0.9
2015 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona 23 5.4 1.8
2015 Kevon Looney UCLA 30 4.8 0.8
2015 Anthony Brown Stanford 34 3.5 -0.2
2015 Joseph Young Oregon 43 4.6 -0.1
2015 Norman Powell UCLA 46 2.8 1.9
2014 Aaron Gordon Arizona 4 5.4 3.2
2014 Zach LaVine UCLA 13 2.5 1.7
2014 Jordan Adams UCLA 22 5.6 0.2
2014 CJ Wilcox Washington 28 3.9 0.3
2014 Kyle Anderson UCLA 30 4.7 2.1
2014 Spencer Dinwiddie Colorado 38 4.1 0.9
2014 Nick Johnson Arizona 42 4.5 -0.1
2013 Shabazz Muhammad UCLA 14 3.7 1.9
2013 Solomon Hill Arizona 23 3.8 2.2
2013 Andre Roberson Colorado 26 4.6 2.7
2013 Allen Crabbe California 31 4.5 2.4
2013 Carrick Felix Arizona St 33 2.4 0
2013 Grant Jerrett Arizona 40 2.3 -0.1
2013 Arsalan Kazemi Oregon 54 5.1 N/A
2012 Terrence Ross Washington 8 3.7 2.9
2012 Jared Cunningham Oregon St 24 3.2 0.1
2012 Tony Wroten Washington 25 3.2 -0.3

So what does that mean for this season? Here are each of the Pac-12 pro prospects that were listed in DraftExpress’ latest mock draft, with win shares per season also recorded.

  • Markelle Fultz, Washington, 3.8 WS/Season
  • Lonzo Ball, UCLA, 6.8
  • Lauri Markkanen, Arizona, 6.7
  • Ivan Rabb, California, 4.9
  • TJ Leaf, UCLA, 5.8
  • Jordan Bell, Oregon, 3.8
  • Dillon Brooks, Oregon, 4.4
  • Kobi Simmons, Arizona, 2.4
  • Kyle Kuzma, Utah, 2.7

Lonzo Ball leads the way with 6.8 win shares, just narrowly edging out Lauri Markkanen’s 6.7. UCLA’s TJ Leaf also appears to be a fairly valuable pick later on in the draft.

Who do you expect will be the most surprising player in this year’s draft class? Leave a comment below or send a tweet to @boettger_eli and @PacificTakes.

(All stats used in this article are courtesy of Sports Reference)