Pac-12 Tournament projection: Oregon vs. UCLA (or Arizona) the likely final

Don’t expect a whole sale round of upsets at the Pac-12 tournament. This conference has been fairly predictable since the beginning.

Let’s take a look at each team’s chances, courtesy of Ken Pomeroy.

No chance: 8 seed Arizona State Sun Devils, 9 seed Stanford Cardinal, 10 seed Washington State Cougars, 11 seed Washington Huskies, 12 seed Oregon State Beavers. Even if they won their first round match on Wednesday, they’d be immediately paired up with the three goliaths of the conference on Thursday. No chance they win on short rest.

Small chance:. 5 seed California Golden Bears (3.9%), 6 seed USC Trojans (2%), 7 seed Colorado Buffaloes (1.3%). Cal would have to upset Oregon, USC would have to upset UCLA, and Colorado would have to upset Arizona. Good news: Cal nearly beat Oregon last month, USC has beaten UCLA and Colorado played Arizona close.

Sleeper: 4 seed Utah Utes (7.0%). Utah narrowly lost to UCLA and went 0-3 against Oregon and Arizona combined, so they might need an upset against the Ducks and probably hope they get the Bruins in the final. And Utah pretty much has to win out.

Favorites: 1 seed Oregon Ducks (34.2%), 3 seed UCLA Bruins (29.9%), 2 seed Arizona WIldcats (21.1%). Oregon is the favorite by default—they only have to beat one of Arizona and UCLA at the very least. UCLA and Arizona have to very likely go through each other and then beat Oregon. Not an easy path at all.