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Week 8 Pac-12 Predictions

(3-3) last week, (35-14) on the season


Saturday Oct, 21
#37 ASU (3-3) vs #40 Utah (4-2) 1230pm PT, FS1
Line: Utah -10.5
Win Probability: Utah 50.18%

#31 ASU Offense vs. #27 Utah Defense

#87 Utah Offense vs. #56 ASU State Defense

This feels like a game where the difference in special teams #32 vs #91 could be the difference. Utah is a big favorite in Vegas, but a very slight favorite in the model. Utah has been steadily climbing as the preseason weighting has fallen off, and they have played pretty well against increasingly difficult competition, but USC was actually a pretty good matchup for the Utes given the Trojans abysmal O-line play this season. This should be a tight game with a surprising ASU team powered by their offense sticking around till the end. This does feel like a game Todd Graham might need to win with a back half of the schedule that could get tight.

Pick
Utah 31 ASU 28

#65 Oregon (4-3) vs #45 UCLA (3-3) 1pm PT, Pac-12
Line: UCLA -6.0
Win Probability: UCLA 69.85%

#70 Oregon Offense vs. #98 UCLA Defense

#19 UCLA Offense vs. #61 Oregon Defense

Mora feels like a dead man walking right now. Mora needs to go at least 4-2 on the back half that includes going to Washington and Utah and playing rival USC. So this is definitely a must win game. Luckily the Ducks are reeling on offense right now with Herbert out. UCLA should be able to crank out some points on this defense and wash some of the bad taste out of their mouth from getting Khalil Tate'd last week.

Pick
UCLA 42 Oregon 21

#22 USC (6-1) vs. #8 Notre Dame (5-1) 430pm PT, NBC
Line: Notre Dame -3.5
Win Probability: Notre Dame 80.01%

#25 USC Offense vs. #15 Notre Dame Defense

#15 Notre Dame Offense vs. #29 USC Defense

If there was ever a game for Sam Darnold to reestablish himself as the media darling he was preseason then this is it. I don't think it happens though. Notre Dame has a significant advantage on special teams #22 vs #50 and USC's pass protection and run blocking really haven't been very good since maybe the Stanford game, and Stanford doesn't have a great defense or anything. I think Notre Dame grinds USC down and forces a few Darnold turnovers.

Pick
Notre Dame 27 USC 17

#41 Arizona (4-2) vs #57 Cal (4-3) 5pm PT, Pac-12
Line: Arizona -3.5
Win Probability: Arizona 60.11%

#7 Arizona Offense vs. #32 Cal Defense

#86 Cal Offense vs. #91 Arizona Defense

The Khalil Tate show has pulled Rich Rodriguez off the hot seat for this season in all likelihood. It is really kind of a miracle because the defense, while improved on last year, isn't very good and the rest of the offense often lacks punch. With Tate though, none of that matters. Years of bad recruiting, talent development, and a stagnant system are being swept away with one dynamic player and an easy schedule in a down year for the Pac-12. That said, at some point somebody is going to keep Tate from piling up explosive plays and Arizona is going to have to win methodically. I would not put it past Wilcox/Deruyter and this defense even with the injuries. The problem for Cal is that their offense is just terrible. I like Arizona to win, though Cal would win roughly 40 games out of a hundred if they played a hundred at Berkeley, so it might only take a difference of one turnover to change this game.

Pick
Arizona 27 Cal 24

#72 Colorado (4-3) vs #34 Washington State (6-1) 745pm PT, ESPN
Line: Washington State -10.0
Win Probability: Washington 80.00%

#43 Colorado Offense vs. #17 WSU Defense

#61 WSU Offense vs. #85 Colorado Defense

This feels kind of topsy turvy for a Cougar team to be led so much by their defense and CU not being led by their defense after last year. The positive for Colorado is that the offense is finally starting to look pretty good, which reflects all the talent they returned off last year, the bad news is the defense is really backsliding after some solid early season performances. WSU is coming off a nightmare of a game where they turned the ball over roughly 25 times and were put on blast by their coach in the media following the game. I expect the Cougar offense to come out with something to prove in this game and Colorado feels like they are losing momentum.

Pick
Washington State 41 Colorado 28

Bye week: #14 Washington, #16 Stanford,
Taking USC's Bye week in addition to their first: #115 Oregon State

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