Saturday Oct, 28
#60 Cal (4-4) vs #84 Colorado (4-4) 11am PT, Pac-12
Line: Colorado -3.5
Win Probability: Cal 71.64%

#71 Cal Offense vs. #79 Colorado Defense

#80 Colorado Offense vs. #49 Cal Defense

There is pretty much one decent unit on the field and that is the Cal defense in this game. Colorado seems to be paying a dear price for all they lost off the defense last year and while they have great skill position players; their offensive line is pretty terrible. Cal couldn't quite close the deal against Arizona and Tate, but did they ever have a great game plan for that game. Wilcox and his defensive staff have done wonders with this team in year one. Cal should win so long as they don't go beyond -1 in turnovers.

#43 UCLA (4-3) vs #13 Washington (6-1) 1230pm PT, ABC
Line: Washington -18.0
Win Probability: Washington 89.95%

#27 UCLA Offense vs. #4 Washington Defense

#32 Washington Offense vs. #85 UCLA Defense

Weirdly it is Jim Mora, rather than Graham or Rodriguez, who is solidly still on the hot seat in the South. While I think his huge buyout will probably save him, this is an important game for him. Nobody expects the Bruins to win this game, but they need to play better than everyone expects. This Washington offense isn't great, they are good, but UCLA needs to slow them down because this Washington defense is great for the third year in a row. I talk a lot about the jobs that Grinch, Leavitt, and Wilcox have done recently, and up until this year Bradley at UCLA, but the job Pete Kwiatkowski has done is just phenomenal. He deserves some interviews for head coaching positions. UCLA simply has to get some kind of run game going with draws and slow the pressure down with screens to keep Rosen alive back there. Lose small and it is an actual moral victory. Get smoked on national TV and you might start a fundraising drive with wealthy boosters.

#62 Utah (4-3) vs #70 Oregon (4-4) 245pm PT, Pac-12
Line: Utah -3.0
Win Probability: Utah 52.78%

#104 Utah Offense vs. #63 Oregon Defense

#72 Oregon Offense vs. #29 Utah Defense

Huntley is back for this game, but the Utah offense wasn't exactly great with him in, so the Utes are going to have to rely on their defense in this game. Oregon still has a lot of young talent and has a great staff, but the team might be two years away from blowing folks out of the water. With Herbert out the Ducks just don't have enough in the tank to compete against a Utah defensive front that has caused havoc even in their losses.

#31 Washington State (7-1) vs #51 Arizona (5-2) 630pm PT, Pac-12
Line: WSU -3.0
Win Probability: WSU 69.85%

#75 Washington State Offense vs. #113 Arizona Defense

#5 Arizona Offense vs. #10 Washington State Defense

Just look at that radar chart with the Arizona offense vs. the Washington State defense! The top offense in the conference faces off against the second best defense. Two top 10 national units going at each other! Everyone is going to make this about Tate vs. the Cougar defensive line, which has been stellar, but this is Alex Grinch vs. Rich Rodriguez. Rodriguez was mostly out coached by Wilcox/Deruyter last week, but Cal's offense was just inept enough to not pull of the upset. Rodriguez is going to have to make adjustments to his game plan and play calling against a defense that is more talented and possibly just as well coached as the Cal defense. Tate is going to have some explosive plays, but if you can limit them like Cal did, get in some body shots, and try to make Arizona beat you with the running backs and through the air then Arizona could be vulnerable without better coaching and play calling than was on display in Berkeley.

On the other side of the ball this is an uncharacteristically bad Cougar offense that has really struggled at times while playing just the 99th toughest slate of defenses in the country. Arizona's defense can make almost anyone look good, but the big difference between this year and last is that the Cats are getting incrementally better pressure and turnovers. You can counter that with the fact that Luke Falk has absolutely owned Arizona in his career and is probably looking forward to getting to play Arizona one more time.

People are going to look WSU having a 70% win probability and assume the model is crazy. It isn't. Things that happen 1/3 of the time are not rare. Arizona likely needs to be +2 in turnover margin and they can win the game. Arizona fans should not be discouraged by a loss, nobody expected Arizona to be in this position prior to the season, but they should be discouraged if Rodriguez gets out coached again.

#28 USC (6-2) vs #39 ASU(4-3) 745pm PT, ESPN
Line: USC -3.5
Win Probability: USC 57.99%

#28 USC Offense vs. #54 ASU Defense

#38 ASU Offense vs. #47 USC Defense

This might, like a lot of USC games this season, come down to how bad the Trojan's offensive line plays. Arizona State still likes to gamble on defense and that could play to their advantage against the Trojans who have struggled to protect Darnold. The flip side of blitzing though is that you can give up big plays and USC always has explosive athletes. Don't sleep on Manny Wilkins and this Sun Devil offense though. They have been good all year and they have some first and second day NFL draft picks at the skill positions of their own. I think this should be an entertaining game that USC has just enough extra talent to win.