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Week 6 Pac-12 Predictions

By Rob Bowron @rbowron1856 on Oct 6, 2017, 11:05am PDT +

(4-1) last week, (28-10) on the season

Saturday Oct, 7
#97 Oregon State (1-4) vs #14 USC (4-1) 1pm PT, Pac-12
Line: USC -34.0
Win Probability: USC 98.54%

#73 Oregon State Offense vs. #22 USC Defense

#17 USC Offense vs. #114 Oregon State Defense

USC gave up the loss I predicted in the preseason last week, but also the loss I talked myself out of when I did the picks last week. You are smart and then you are not. As much as you should feel for USC in not getting a bye this season, take a moment and have pity on OSU who is finishing up the trifecta of WSU, Washington, and USC. This should be a bad matchup for the Beavers on both sides of the ball, but their defense has given up quite a few big plays and there is nothing USC loves more than big plays.
Pick
USC 41 OSU 13

#23 Washington State (5-0) vs. #24 Oregon (4-1) 5pm PT, Fox
Line: Unavailable
Win Probability: Push 50.00%

#23 WSU Offense vs. #50 Oregon Defense

#13 Oregon Offense vs. #36 WSU Defense

Regardless of whether it is Alie or Burmeister taking snaps back there, it won't be Herbert. That seems to be enough to push this game in Wazzu's favor. Oregon and WSU have both relied more on the big play so far this season, but WSU's defense is good enough to slow Oregon down with a backup QB in play.

 Pick
WSU 31 Oregon 28

#76 Arizona (2-2) vs #49 Colorado (3-1) 5pm PT, Pac-12
Line: Colorado -6.5
Win Probability: Colorado 72.64%

#41 Arizona Offense vs. #21 Colorado Defense

#86 Colorado Offense vs. #83 Arizona Defense

This week's game of the year of the week for Rich Rod is in Boulder. Colorado looks like a more competent version of Utah on both offense and defense. In some ways Colorado's split on offense vs. defense is pretty unexpected. They returned so much on offense and lost so much on defense; including the coordinator, but Colorado mostly hasn't lost a step on defense and the offense is just flat struggling. Arizona's defense is bad enough to seem appetizing and their offense is Power 5 average, again, Colorado isn't great at special teams #60, but they are much better than, again, struggling, #121 Arizona. The Buffs dropping the game to UCLA last week really isn't ideal for Arizona because Colorado will probably come out tuned in and ready after starting 0-2 in Pac-12 play.

Pick
Colorado 24 Arizona 17

#22 Stanford (3-2) vs #70 Utah (4-0) 715pm PT, FS1
Line: Stanford -4.0
Win Probability: Stanford 84.66%

#18 Stanford Offense vs. #37 Utah Defense

#102 Utah Offense vs. #48 Stanford Defense

Utah come on down! The Utes are 4-0, ranked #20 in the AP poll, and have played absolutely nobody and often not well. The Utes rank #127 in SOS at this point with their toughest game being at #72 Arizona last week. They needed 5 turnovers to squeak by an utterly mediocre Arizona squad. The other game the model is using to peg the Utes is their game against #99 BYU. So here is your chance Utah. Play well against a good team and you move up in the model. Play like you have thus far this season, and you won't. Pretty simple. Stanford seems to have figured out that their offense is just going to run through Bryce Love, which should open up the Stanford play action game for just about any QB. I like the Stanford defense to shut down Utah and put pressure on Tyler Huntley.

Pick
Stanford 28 Utah 17

#71 Cal (3-2) vs #11 Washington (5-0) 745pm PT, ESPN
Line: Washington -27.5
Win Probability: Washington 98.54%


#6 Washington Offense vs. #43 Cal Defense

Washington appears to rolling and Cal appears to be coming back to earth. This should be a good test for the Husky offense though. Wilcox is a top notch defensive mind and Cal has done a great job of limiting big plays and making you drive the length of the field. The game shouldn't end up being close though.

 Pick
Washington 45 Cal 13

Stewing on the Car Salesman's future: #62 ASU

 Stewing on whether Jim's Mora's offense is manly enough: #39 UCLA

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