Saturday Nov, 4
#20 USC (8-2) vs #69 Colorado (5-5) 1pm PT, Fox
Line: USC -13.5
Win Probability: USC 89.22%

#17 USC Offense vs. #80 Colorado Defense

#56 Colorado Offense vs. #33 USC Defense

Colorado is a lot more likely to pick up their 6th win next week vs. Utah than this week against a Trojan team that has been playing pretty well since getting smacked around by an excellent Notre Dame squad. USC mostly played assignment football last week to drive Arizona crazy and I was impressed with their discipline. I think they put up some points against an overmatched Colorado squad that has failed to live up to expectations; especially on offense.

#30 Washington State (8-2) vs #57 Utah (5-4) 230pm PT, Pac-12
Line: WSU -1.0
Win Probability: WSU 71.08%

#75 Washington State Offense vs. #40 Utah Defense

#95 Utah Offense vs. #7 Washington State Defense

This feels like a dangerous game for Wazzu. Utah beat a Rosen-less UCLA squad last week in pretty convincing fashion. Vegas is reading too much into that though. UCLA is all offense at this point and not having Rosen rendered them impotent, but Utah's defensive front has the ability to generate turnovers and, combined with Whittingham's glacial game pace, keep games very close. Washington State certainly has show general offensive incompetence at times and an ability to turn the ball over. So there is a lot of volatility on that side of the ball that could turn the game either way. I still believe in the Cougars defense though and Utah's offense is pretty much unwatchable for the ______ year in a row.

#52 Arizona State (5-4) vs #64 UCLA (4-5) 630pm PT, Pac-12
Line: UCLA -3.0
Win Probability: ASU 55.25%

#45 Arizona State Offense vs. #110 UCLA Defense

#25 UCLA Offense vs. #65 Arizona State Defense

Here is one where Vegas and the model just plain differ. UCLA is getting the pure home nod on the betting line while the model thinks ASU is a very slight favorite even taking into account home field. This is also really a must win for Mora. If UCLA falls to 4-6 with USC still to play then you can probably just start dropping off moving boxes at the Mora household. I am not sure that Rosen and the UCLA offense show up sharp and the Devils can get you with the blitz; though they also give up a lot of big plays to compensate. I just have faith that whomever UCLA is playing will put up points.

#107 Oregon State (1-8) vs #32 Arizona (6-2) 7pm PT, ESPN
Line: Arizona -21.5
Win Probability: Arizona 92.89%

#69 Oregon State Offense vs. #103 Arizona Defense

#6 Arizona Offense vs. #122 Oregon State Defense

The very best offense in the Pac-12, and one of the best in the country, takes on the very worst defense in the Pac-12, and one of the worst in the country. This should be fun; in a brutal way. I think Oregon State is going to be able to line up and run the ball on Arizona a bit; remember CU and Philip Lindsay, but they have no shot of keeping up with the Arizona offense so long as Arizona doesn't turn the ball over 4 times or something crazy.

If Arizona is up by more than two touchdowns at half time then Tate should call it a night and Eletise and some of the backup lineman should come in. Arizona is now losing 4 starters off this year's thin (THIN) O-line and that never goes well the next season. Plus I want Dawkins to go out on a high note before he transfers and leaves Arizona light at QB next year. Arizona fans went into bananas hyperbole in criticizing Dawkins and while he played mystifyingly badly much of the time; you could say that about everyone who has taken a snap in between Matt Scott and Khalil Tate. I'll always remember the Washington game last year where Dawkins, running the offense much like Tate does now, willed Arizona to compete against one of the best teams, and best defenses, in the country. So lets be gracious and hope he gets to play, plays well, and has a good swan song; also if Tate gets injured in meaningless time against Oregon State the fan base is going to have a collective apoplexy.