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Week 12 Pac-12 Predictions

(3-2) last week, (49-22) on the season


Saturday Nov, 18
#59 Arizona State (5-5) vs #110 Oregon State (1-9) 12pm PT, Pac-12
Line: ASU -7.0
Win Probability: ASU 87.32%

#48 Arizona State Offense vs. #124 Oregon State Defense

#70 Oregon State Offense vs. #70 Arizona State Defense

This is a truly must win game for ASU. They could certainly pull off a win at home against Arizona next week, but you don't want to leave it all on your end of season rivalry game where your rival is rolling with a dark horse Heisman candidate. The Beavers were not terrible against Arizona and ASU struggled a bit against a truly bad UCLA defense last week. I still like ASU to win the game though. I think the Beavers just don't have enough in the tank to fend off the Sun Devils.

Pick
Arizona State 38 Oregon State 28

#36 Arizona (7-3) vs #72 Oregon (5-5) 4pm PT, Pac-12
Line: Pick -0.0
Win Probability: Arizona 74.37%

#4 Arizona Offense vs. #72 Oregon Defense

#65 Oregon Offense vs. #106 Arizona Defense

Justin Herbert is playing and even if that were not true; I don't love this matchup for Arizona. Oregon can really run the football against most defenses and the stregnth, if there is one, of this Arizona defense has been getting enough pass rush to create some turnovers. I do think Tate and the Arizona offense find a way to create some big plays and score some points, but can Leavitt take the two weeks he had to prepare and get a young Oregon defense ready? Many Arizona pundits have assumed that because Arizona is putting up crazy points that the offense hasn't had any hiccups beyond the first half vs. USC. That is clearly wrong. The second half of the Cal game was a very good defensive performance by the Bears and Washington State really had 8 really bad plays and played well the rest of the game. That isn't to say Arizona didn't have a good offensive game against the Cougars, but it was truly all home runs or strike outs. Arizona might not have the personnel or the offensive sophistication to sustain drives so the Oregon game is going to turn on big plays; probably from both offenses. Oregon will probably bring up the safeties, like USC did, and play man coverage on the outside on Arizona's small (not very fast) WR's. Arizona can't get sucked into trying to manufacture big plays, without big WR's, like they did in the first half against the Trojans. That was dumb. Arizona has to stay patient and let the running game set up the passing game. If they do that they win a very close game where Herbert's rust may be the difference.

Pick
Arizona 49 Oregon 45


#56 UCLA (9-2) vs #24 USC (5-5) 5pm PT, ABC
Line: USC -16.0
Win Probability: USC 84.72%

#26 UCLA Offense vs. #33 USC Defense

#19 USC Offense vs. #96 UCLA Defense

Everyone in America should tune in for the uniforms alone. The Pac-12 has some truly atrocious uniforms, but here we have the two best looking uniforms in the conference and both teams will be in their home duds. The game itself is a bit disappointing because the UCLA defense fell off the map so badly this season. It is going to be tough for a good Bruins offense to keep up with Darnold and company. If UCLA can get some pressure and force a few turnovers then good things could happen for them. Conversely though, if the Trojans can get pressure with four rushers, this could get ugly.

Pick
USC 42 UCLA 25


#62 Cal (5-5) vs #29 Stanford (7-3) 5pm PT, Fox
Line: Stanford -15.5
Win Probability: Stanford 83.66%

#64 Cal Offense vs. #55 Stanford Defense

#27 Stanford Offense vs. #74 Cal Defense

I get it that Los Angeles and San Francisco are big media markets and that drives TV decisions, but the conference have simultaneous prime time games on broadcast networks is great, that both feature large spreads; not so great. I still think the Bears are a fun story, even though they have wilted in conference play. Stanford is coming off a big win last week, but I don't see them letting down here. Bryce Love has a big game and the Cardinal roll unless Wilcox and DeRuyter can spin up a 3+ turnover margin.

Pick
Stanford 35 Cal 23


#53 Utah (5-5) vs #12 Washington (8-2) 730pm PT, ESPN
Line: Washington -18.0
Win Probability: Washington 93.84%

#75 Utah Offense vs. #9 Washington Defense

#24 Washington Offense vs. #41 Utah Defense

Well Week 12 in the Pac-12 really has some bad games on paper! One of the above games will likely be closer than expected. Whittingham slows down games considerably and that could help keep this one reasonable for awhile, but the matchup of a largely ineffective offense vs. a very good Washington defense that is mad after getting run on by Stanford is not going to be good for Utah. The Utes have done better this season with teams that are pass first, they have a good pass rush, but they have struggled with teams committed to running the football. If UW lets Gaskin runs set up their passing, especially with play action, this could get ugly and stay ugly.

Pick
Washington 45 Utah 17

Trying to figure out what happened to the Pirate Offense: Washington State
Getting ready for a bruiser with the Utes: Colorado

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