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Week 13 Pac-12 Predictions (All of them)

(4-1) last week, (45-23) on the season


Friday Nov, 24
#52 Cal (5-6) vs #51 UCLA (5-6) 730pm PT, FS1
Line: UCLA -7.0
Win Probability: UCLA 67.15%

#60 Cal Offense vs. #84 UCLA Defense

#27 UCLA Offense vs. #73 Cal Defense

Hmmm, does UCLA show up? Vegas seems to have this game pegged as if Mora hadn't been fired; which is probably the only sensible way to handle it. The Bruins could come out mad or they could mail it in and get ready for finals and Christmas break. Which is not to say Cal won't have anything to say about the outcome. This game will probably turn on whether UCLA's offense show up or not. Their defense hasn't been great all year, though they had a pretty good game against the Trojans last week; all things considered. I also don't want to undersell Wilcox amping up the Bears and getting the win to send a young team to a bowl.

Pick
UCLA 41 Cal 38

Saturday Nov, 25
#51 Arizona (7-4) vs #54 ASU (6-5) 130pm PT, Pac-12
Line: Arizona -2.5
Win Probability: ASU 50.18%

#8 Arizona Offense vs. #67 ASU Defense

#45 ASU Offense vs. #115 Arizona Defense

The game of the year of the week for Rich Rodriguez and Todd Graham is this Saturday in Tempe. Graham is reported to be coaching for his job. He is 5-3 in a down Pac-12 this year and that schedule included Washington and Stanford, but Graham's personality isn't quite a fit for ASU boosters and with UCLA making a big move the pressure is on ASU to not be standing still in the Pac-12 South. Lose to Arizona and ASU will come up with Graham's substantial buyout and probably look to pick up a big name from the pink slip line; Kevin Sumlin seems like a popular pick. For Rodriguez there is no question about him getting fired even if he loses this game, but a loss would wipe out most of the momentum the mid-season Tate surge brought on. Rodriguez likes to keep a toe in the job market and he needs this win to get serious interviews for some of the SEC jobs that will be open; though the Bradford related lawsuit is a big red flag to any AD.

The actual game is going to turn on the two things that all Arizona games have turned on since Tate started: Tate generating big runs and Arizona's defense creating turnovers. Arizona's offense mostly lacks Power-5 talent outside the offensive backfield, so they need Tate to break out for big plays and put the defense on its heels. Oregon executed a perfect game plan against Tate, daring ANY Arizona players other than Tate to beat them. Nobody on Arizona's offense could make a real difference. ASU isn't exactly known for discipline, but Phil Bennett has done a pretty good job making the defense less committed to the blitz. I don't know that they can fully contain Tate, but there is plenty of tape now on how to do it well. ASU's offense should be able to put up yards and points on Arizona's lousy defense. Arizona hasn't so much stopped anyone this season as they have gotten good pass rush in spots and caused some turnovers. The injuries on the D-line, don't bode well for that in this game. Ultimately I think ASU is playing for more and I don't think Arizona has the playbook or the team wide talent to overcome their one-dimensional offense and dependency on turnovers instead of stops.

Pick
ASU 34 Arizona 31


#118 Oregon State (1-10) vs #49 Oregon (6-5) 430pm PT, ESPN2
Line: Oregon -24.5
Win Probability: Oregon 98.54%

#82 Oregon State Offense vs. #46 Oregon Defense

#52 Oregon Offense vs. #124 Oregon State Defense

Well Oregon State did nearly beat Stanford and that game was about the same spread and win probability, but Oregon should romp to 7 wins in Taggart's first, and perhaps last, season. Taggart can probably get Christobal and Leavitt to go with him if he lands a Florida offer; given their extensive Florida ties. The fact that both of these schools could be looking for coaches after this game, relative to preseason expectations, is just crazy. Oregon should run it up at home.

Pick
Oregon 56 OSU 17

#9 Notre Dame (9-2) vs #33 Stanford (8-3) 5pm PT, ABC
Line: Notre Dame -3.0
Win Probability: Notre Dame 84.73%

#10 Notre Dame Offense vs. #60 Stanford Defense

#29 Stanford Offense vs. #16 Notre Dame Defense

This game matters quite a bit for both teams, but also the Pac-12 conference. Notre Dame wants a shot at a big bowl and an big payday, Stanford wants to win the game and generate momentum heading towards the conference title game or bowl, and the Pac-12 hasn't been very good this year and USC already was thoroughly humiliated by the Irish. The conference desperately needs this game to be at least close if WSU pulls off the win, but a Stanford win if they don't. It will not look good for Stanford to limp into the Pac-12 title game if they get boat-raced by Notre Dame. Stanford's defense might be exactly what the Irish offense needs to face here. I think David Shaw can coach em up and make the game close (2+ turnovers could make it interesting), but I think Stanford's one dimensional offense looks lost against the Irish and the Cardinal loses this one by double digits and then heads to Santa Clara for a rematch with the Trojans.

Pick
Notre Dame 36 Stanford 20

#38 Washington State (9-2) vs #13 Washington (9-2) 5pm PT, Fox
Line: Washington -10.5
Win Probability: Washington 84.72%

#88 WSU Offense vs. #22 Washington Defense

#16 Washington Offense vs. #6 WSU Defense

This game is kind of miraculous in that all Washington can do is keep the Cougs from winning the North. It has been a weird season for both of these programs. Washington's defense looked amazing two weeks ago, but while Stanford was a loss, the Huskies played TERRIBLE against an utterly abysmal Utah offense and the model has penalized them accordingly. For the Cougs, if you had told me that they would have had Luke Falk all season and a #6 ranked defense, I would have told you that Wazzu would be a Playoff contender. Instead Mike Leach's offense has just been unwatchable this season and Luke Falk looks like a kid who hates his dad who won't shut up. Wazzu's defense is plenty good enough to make a game of this, especially if they generate some turnovers, but Cougar fans have to be worried about what happens if their offense has 2+ turnovers. Washington wins and Stanford slinks into the Pac-12 title game following a loss to Notre Dame.

Pick
Washington 31 Washington State 20

#75 Colorado (5-6) vs #47 Utah (5-6) 5pm PT, Fox
Line: Utah -10.5
Win Probability: Utah 72.65%

#58 Colorado Offense vs. #51 Utah Defense

#48 Utah Offense vs. #86 Colorado Defense

The other Bowl Eligibility Bowl in the Pac-12 takes place in Salt Lake. Utah's offense got a big bump from a big game against the Washington defense. We'll see if that carries on going forward. The Colorado defense isn't great or anything and they have struggled against mobile QB's, so watch out for Huntley and the Utes to have a good game. The flip side of this is that Utah's defense has been sliding a bit of late. The Ute's aren't stacked at all three levels defensively. This unit is strong up front and gets good pressure, which can lead to turnovers and Utah being in games that they have little shot to win on paper. Colorado can run the ball against most teams and if they are able to run the ball effectively and generate a turnover or two then this game could go their way. But I like the Utes to win this game and find the subplot of unhinged Utes fans calling for Whittingham's head while he might actually get some interviews this cycle; to be pretty interesting.

Pick
Utah 20 Colorado 14

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