(4-1) last week, (49-24) on the season
Vegas and the model diverge on this game, but not by much of course. Stanford is a slight favorite in the model, partly due to hidden yards where Stanford as a distinct special teams advantage; #18 vs. #72. USC has not really played very well down the stretch. Sure they got the doors blown off them by Notre Dame and Stanford did not, but UCLA has a pretty mediocre defense and USC didn't have a great game against them. Stanford, meanwhile, had a pretty good defensive outing against the Irish. USC has had two weeks to prepare and they did run over Stanford in the Coliseum earlier in the year. I don't think that early game matters as much as recent performance however. USC's offensive weakness is pass protection and in the first game they avoided it by running the ball right at Stanford. I don't think they can get away with it here. I think this is a close game on paper, so a turnover here or there could swing it dramatically.
Pick
Stanford 30 USC 24
Friday Dec, 1
#23 Stanford (9-3) vs #32 USC (10-2) 5pm PT, ESPN
Line: USC -3.5
Win Probability: Stanford 63.45%
#21 Stanford Offense vs. #34 USC Defense
#32 USC Offense vs. #40 Stanford Defense
#23 Stanford (9-3) vs #32 USC (10-2) 5pm PT, ESPN
Line: USC -3.5
Win Probability: Stanford 63.45%
#21 Stanford Offense vs. #34 USC Defense
#32 USC Offense vs. #40 Stanford Defense
Vegas and the model diverge on this game, but not by much of course. Stanford is a slight favorite in the model, partly due to hidden yards where Stanford as a distinct special teams advantage; #18 vs. #72. USC has not really played very well down the stretch. Sure they got the doors blown off them by Notre Dame and Stanford did not, but UCLA has a pretty mediocre defense and USC didn't have a great game against them. Stanford, meanwhile, had a pretty good defensive outing against the Irish. USC has had two weeks to prepare and they did run over Stanford in the Coliseum earlier in the year. I don't think that early game matters as much as recent performance however. USC's offensive weakness is pass protection and in the first game they avoided it by running the ball right at Stanford. I don't think they can get away with it here. I think this is a close game on paper, so a turnover here or there could swing it dramatically.
Stanford 30 USC 24
Saturday Dec, 2
#10 TCU (10-2) vs #7 Oklahoma (11-1) 1030am PT, Fox
Line: Oklahoma -7.0
Win Probability: Oklahoma 71.08%
#50 TCU Offense vs. #52 Oklahoma Defense
#1 Oklahoma Offense vs. #3 TCU Defense
Line: Oklahoma -7.0
Win Probability: Oklahoma 71.08%
#50 TCU Offense vs. #52 Oklahoma Defense
#1 Oklahoma Offense vs. #3 TCU Defense
Everyone chatters about the committee not liking Oklahoma's defense, which is fine, but in all the chatter about the negatives that separate contenders we have lost sight of the 2017 Oklahoma offense which is INCREDIBLE.
2017 Oklahoma 2.2323
2016 Oklahoma 1.9281
2015 Arkansas 1.719
2014 Georgia Tech 1.8594
2017 Oklahoma puts up a third of a point more per drive than 2016 Oklahoma and almost a half a point better per drive than 2015 Arkansas (which barely edged out Hogan/McCaffery Stanford that season for the best offense). This offense is just unreal. We don't have good player isolation metrics in football, QBR is still junk, but I can't imagine an argument for Baker Mayfield not winning the Heisman directing an offense that is just this good.
Done with that tangent. This game should be really good. The original game turned on TCU having bad luck. The actual predicted points for each team given the drive they had was a narrow Oklahoma win 34.5-32.6. I think Gary Patterson has his team ready for this game. Again, this game is going to be close on paper, so a turnover here or there could be the difference.
Oklahoma 41 TCU 33
#1 Georgia (11-1) vs #3 Auburn (10-2) 130pm PT, CBS
Line: Auburn -2.0
Win Probability: Georgia 55.25%
#5 Georgia Offense vs. #1 Auburn Defense
#9 Auburn Offense vs. #4 Georgia Defense
Line: Auburn -2.0
Win Probability: Georgia 55.25%
#5 Georgia Offense vs. #1 Auburn Defense
#9 Auburn Offense vs. #4 Georgia Defense
This game is just so interesting. Georgia legitimately played poorly against Auburn earlier, this wasn't luck. The model predicts a very similar score given the games drive data for that game. So does Auburn's defense and offense just have Georgia's number? Is this just a terrible matchup for Georgia against a very good team? Georgia has had some pretty easy games since playing Auburn so they definitely have had time to get their confidence back and they have to come into this game mad at what happened to them on the Plains. Auburn played a great game against Alabama last week, and again, didn't rely on luck for the win. Georgia is a very slight favorite in the model. You don't even need to see any turnovers to see either team winning. So this turns on what you think of the first game: a crappy game by Georgia that feeds fire for revenge and the "Nobody believed in us" or a harbinger of Auburn having Georgia's number.
Georgia 27 Auburn 24
#16 Miami (10-1) vs #8 Clemson (11-1) 5pm PT, ABC
Line: Clemson -9.5
Win Probability: Clemson 72.65%
#38 Miami Offense vs. #7 Clemson Defense
#27 Clemson Offense vs. #14 Miami Defense
Line: Clemson -9.5
Win Probability: Clemson 72.65%
#38 Miami Offense vs. #7 Clemson Defense
#27 Clemson Offense vs. #14 Miami Defense
Neither of these teams jump out at you on offense, but Clemson's defense is very good and should be the difference in this game. I think Miami's offense is going to struggle to get it going in this game and that could leave their defense defensing some short fields. Miami's offense could get turnover prone if they are trying too hard to make up a deficit. All that said, Miami has a very good defense of their own and the Turnover Chain is a real thing with its own dark magic that may evade common mathematics. If Clemson turns the ball over a time or two this could be a Miami win.
Clemson 41 Miami 28
#2 Ohio State (10-2) vs #6 Wisconsin (12-0) 5pm PT, Fox
Line: Ohio State -6.0
Win Probability: Ohio State 60.11%
#4 Ohio State Offense vs. #2 Wisconsin Defense
#17 Wisconsin Offense vs. #15 Ohio State Defense
Line: Ohio State -6.0
Win Probability: Ohio State 60.11%
#4 Ohio State Offense vs. #2 Wisconsin Defense
#17 Wisconsin Offense vs. #15 Ohio State Defense
This should be a really great game of fairly evenly matched units. Ohio State has been high in the model all season while Wisconsin has crept up the rankings with very consistent performances against a pretty "meh" schedule. These teams are close enough that either could win without turnovers or luck. This Wisconsin team is not that Iowa team from 2015 that was more lucky than great, they can play and their defense is very good. The Ohio State offense has been inconsistent at times, but if they show up they should be good enough to win. I do wonder how much the Schiano to Tennessee imbroglio has caused a distraction. I also wonder if Miller is healthy?
Wisconsin 24 Ohio State 20