(4-2) last week, (6-2) on the season
#128 Texas State (1-0) vs #36 Colorado (1-0) 11am PT, Pac-12
Colorado has a two week tune up period after the Rocky Mountain Showdown. Texas State projects as the worst FBS program in the country and next week the Buffs play Northern Colorado. Just get your reps in without injury should be the goal. If either of these are close it will be something to ponder.
Colorado 48 Texas State 10
#50 Nebraska (1-0) vs. #23 Oregon (1-0) 130pm PT, Fox
So my preseason model and Vegas are in agreement that Oregon should be about a 14 point favorite at home. I am a little more cautious, but I like the Ducks. Nebraska didn't light it up against #81 Arkansas State, especially on defense.
Oregon 38 Nebraska 20
#100 Hawai'i (2-0) vs #28 UCLA (1-0) 2pm PT, Pac-12
2-0 Hawai'i rolls into town, but their record shouldn't really impress anyone. #103 UMass is only impressive because the game was in Massachusetts and then the Rainbow Warriors beat an FCS team. UCLA should roll in this game and get ready for the Memphis trap game everyone has circled on their schedule in River City.
UCLA 54 Hawai'i 17
#16 Stanford(1-0) vs #7 USC (1-0) 530 PT, Fox
I do like that this has turned into the Pac-12's version of Miami and FSU all because of quirk of scheduling so both these programs can play late season games against Notre Dame. The winner of this game grabs pole position on the Pac-12's race for a playoff spot, though Stanford has the tougher race to run in the North. I like USC in this game. I am not sold on Stanford's offense bouncing back into full form and I like USC's overall talent in the game. That said, I can always talk myself into David Shaw winning the coaching battle by a wide margin.
USC 31 Stanford 28
#48 Minnesota (1-0) vs #53 Oregon State (1-1) 7pm PT, FS1
Neither of these teams have had great starts. Minnesota struggled at home with #123 Buffalo and OSU lost a game they were supposed to lose at #46 CSU, but by more than they should have, and then nearly flubbed a game against FCS Portland State at home. The Beavers are a slight favorite in the model with home field advantage.
OSU 24 Minnesota 23
#55 Utah (1-0) vs #62 BYU (1-1) 715pm PT, ESPN2
One of the great rivalries of the old WAC renews in Provo. Utah looked OK against North Dakota. BYU also looked OK against Portland State, but then looked bad against #4 LSU; which is fine, but is a game that maybe BYU shouldn't have taken, despite the craving for national exposure that sometimes gets the better of them in Provo. This game has only become more bitter since Utah joined the Pac-12 and BYU wasn't invited. This game should be close with Utah getting just enough to win.
Utah 17 BYU 14
#49 Boise State (1-0) vs #26 Washington State (1-0) 730pm PT, ESPN
Boise really did not stick it to #80 Troy in a way that would lead you to think the preseason model might be wrong about them. WSU played well in dominating an FCS squad. Washington State plays well enough to win against a tough out Boise team.
WSU 34 BSU 27
#67 Houston (0-0) vs #66 Arizona (1-0) 730pm PT, ESPNU
I would feel a lot better about picking this game if I had seen Houston play last week. Vegas was not impressed with Arizona's win vs. NAU as they favor Houston by a point on the road coming into this game. If Ed Oliver has a big game this could be real trouble for Arizona as their defense did not inspire any confidence giving up a mountain of yards to NAU; still the model picks Arizona at home and I think they find a way. If they don't, then the Rich Rod seat starts getting hotter, earlier than expected.
Arizona 42 Houston 38
#58 SDSU (1-0) vs #71 Arizona State (1-0) 8pm PT, Pac-12
So SDSU did alright beating an FCS team and ASU did everything short of lose against an #114 NMSU team that would struggle to beat many FCS teams. This is a tough game to pick. Vegas has ASU by 3.5, and most of that is home field, but I have SDSU just barely favored even on the road. I try to stick with the model after getting burned picking against the model and UCLA last week. If ASU loses Todd Graham will be fired before October.
SDSU 51 ASU 49
Playing FCS: #6 Washington, #7 California