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Pac-12 bracketology 2/22: Oregon, Arizona and Utah now locks

The Pac-12 NCAA Tournament picture starts to take focus.

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Locks

Oregon 21-6 (10-4)

Seed: 2-3

Quality wins: Baylor, Alabama, Cal, at Utah, USC, at Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Oregon State Bad losses: UNLV

Toughest remaining game: 3/5 at USC

The Ducks are in. No question about that. Now the only questioning is where they will be seeded. They have the inside track to win the conference and win the Pac-12 Tournament and that could push them as high as a one seed.

Arizona 22-5 (10-4)

Seed: 3-4

Quality wins: at Gonzaga, Washington, Oregon State, at Washington, USC

Toughest remaining game: 2/27 at Utah

The Wildcats are right on the Ducks' heels, but haven't quite eclipsed them yet due to losing to Oregon at home and a slight lack of quality wins. I think they still have two or even one seed potential, but they are going to have to run the table from here and have to finish strong to avoid slipping towards the 5-6 range.

Utah 21-7 (10-5)

Seed: 4-5

Quality wins: San Diego State, Texas Tech, Temple, Duke, at Colorado, Oregon State, at Washington, Cal, Washington, at USC

Toughest remaining game: 2/27 Arizona

Utah is red hot and loaded with quality wins, particularly ones out-of-conference that will pay major dividends. They are locked in now and have a shot at making a run at a top three seed.

On Track

Cal 19-8 (9-5)

Seed: 6-7

Quality wins: Saint Mary's, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Oregon, at Washington Bad losses: Richmond

Toughest remaining game: 3/3 at Arizona

Cal is getting hot at just the right time and making a run up the board. They probably need another win or two to lock themselves in, but they are very close to fully playing themselves out of the dreaded 7-10-seed range.

USC 19-8 (8-6)

Seed: 7-9

Quality wins: Wichita State, Arizona, Washington, Colorado

Toughest remaining game: 3/5 Oregon

The ultra-young Trojans are reeling, but need just another win or two to lock themselves in. The bigger question is what seed they can get. They appeared to be as high as a four or five just days ago, but are slipping towards the bubble.

On The Bubble

Colorado 19-9 (8-7)

Seed: 9-11

Quality wins: Oregon State, Oregon, Cal, Washington

Toughest remaining game: 3/5 at Utah

The Buffs have slipped onto the bubble and are very close to falling out of the tournament. They have a tough schedule to close up, with two of their final three coming against Arizona and Utah, so they have to beat Arizona State at home to avoid putting themselves in a tough place headed into the Pac-12 Tournament.

Oregon State 15-10 (6-8)

Seed: NIT-play-in

Quality wins: Tulsa, Oregon, Cal, USC, Utah, Colorado

Toughest remaining game: 3/2 at USC

The Beavers are still in play despite having a lot of losses because of their nice collection of quality wins. They will probably need to win three out of their final four in the regular season and win at game or two in the conference tournament for a real shot at an invitation.

Washington 16-11 (8-7)

Seed: NIT-play-in

Quality wins: Texas, USC, Colorado

Bad losses: Oakland, UCSB

Toughest remaining game: 2/28 at Oregon

The Huskies are falling apart as they lost a must-win at home to Cal last week and only kept themselves alive by following it up with a win over Stanford. They have a huge showdown Wednesday in Corvallis where they might have to beat the surging Beavers on the road to keep their tournament hopes alive.

Hanging By A Thread

UCLA 15-12 (6-8)

Seed: NIT

Quality wins: Kentucky, at Gonzaga, Arizona, at Oregon State, Colorado

Bad losses: Wake Forest, at Washington State

Toughest remaining game: 3/2 Oregon

The Bruins probably have to win out in the regular season and win a couple of games in the Pac-12 Tournament for at-large consideration.

Stanford 13-12 (6-8)

Seed: C tournament-NIT

Quality wins: Utah, at Oregon State, Cal, Oregon

Toughest remaining game: 3/5 at Arizona

Stanford is likely in UCLA's boat where they will probably have to win out in the regular season and win a few games in the Pac-12 Tournament for an at-large bid.