Week 10

Hi everyone,

Are these posts useful to people? I'm sorry they're always a couple days late...

Howdy partners,

Would you believe we are already two-thirds of the way through college football season?

Tomorrow is Week 11, but before we set the table for Saturday's games, let's take a look at what happened last week.

Around the Country

Florida State 42, Louisville 31: Down 21-0 on the road? No problem. Like him or not, Jameis Winston knows how to lead his team to victory. Noles need to win out to get into the playoff, but that's looking quite likely at this point.

Duke 51, Pittsburgh 48, 2OT: I hate to say it, but Pittsburgh lost this game because their kicker missed a chip shot (26 yard) field goal with two seconds left in regulation. His last name:

Blewitt. Seriously.

Florida 38, Georgia 20: Did anyone see this coming? The SEC West may be a juggernaut, but the SEC East is weak. Georgia exposed as a fraud.

TCU 31, West Virginia 30: Huge, enormous, titanic road win for the Horned Frogs in difficult Morgantown. Jaden Oberkrom nails a 37-yard field goal as time expires to keep TCU in the national title picture.

Auburn 35, Ole Miss 31: If you don't know how this game ended, it's probably better that you don't. Per Scott Michaux:

Poor Ole Miss. Lost best player, go-ahead TD, fumble, game, division, conference, playoff spot, title shot in less than 1 yard. Just brutal.

Ouch.

Mississippi State 17, Arkansas 10: Bulldogs survive upset scare from the Razorbacks. Arkansas has to be the best 4-5 team in the nation, having nearly defeated both MSU and Alabama in recent weeks.

Notre Dame 49, Navy 39: Thirty nine points? To Navy? Sorry, but Notre Dame is not striking me as a playoff-worthy team.

We'll talk more about the playoff picture in the coming weeks and how the Pac-12 factors into it. (At the moment, it's Oregon or bust, but that could change.) For now, back to the Left Coast, which featured a complete slate of conference games in Week 10.

Washington 38, Colorado 23

Oh, Colorado.

You had yet another chance. You were ahead 20-17 at the half. You held UW to only 14 first downs. The Huskies went 2-11 on third downs and lost three fumbles.

And yet you still lose by 15 points?

I'm disappointed. Too many mistakes: four turnovers (including a pick six) and an 87 yard punt return allowed. I really thought you were going to win this one. But now, with Arizona, Oregon, and Utah coming up, you're likely to finish 2-10.

As for you, Washington, I remain profoundly unimpressed. If you want to show me something, then beat UCLA tomorrow at home. (Note: you won't.)

USC 44, WSU 17

It is unfortunate that Cougar QB Connor Halliday was knocked out of the game in the first quarter. I still think USC would have won this game handily, but without their prolific passer, WSU stood no chance. The Trojans went up 17-0 early, were up 24-7 at the half, and finished strong to put the Cougars out of their misery. JuJu Smith scored three touchdowns for the Trojans, while Nelson Agholor had two explosion plays: a 65-yard punt return to open the scoring, and an 87-yard catch to extend USC's lead in the third quarter.

Meanwhile, Cody Kessler continues his steady play, quietly accounting for another five touchdown throws without an interception, to bring his TD-INT ratio to an outstanding 25-2 for the season. We will see how the Trojans finish the year, with a bye week upcoming before a home contest against Cal, UCLA at the Rose Bowl, and the Fighting Irish at the Coliseum.

Oregon 45, Stanford 16

Oregon finally got out of its own way against Stanford, defeating the Cardinal for the first time in three seasons, to keep its national championship hopes on track.

This was less a football game than a three-period hockey match:

• The Ducks raced out to a 21-6 lead and looked poise to knock out Stanford before the first half ended.

• Mariota misfired on an open throw to the end zone that would have put the Ducks up 28-6 in the second quarter. Instead, Oregon kicked a field goal. Stanford cut the deficit to 24-13 by the half, scored a field goal to open the third quarter, and was within striking distance at 24-16. But then...

• ...Oregon locked down the game with three straight touchdowns to win going away.

Each team punted only twice. That stat definitely favors Oregon, which is happy to play a high scoring contest with anyone. Stanford did a poor job on third down defense (Oregon converted 8 of 13) but it's hard to fault the Cardinal for that, as Oregon has been running downhill ever since their emphatic 42-30 victory over UCLA. Mariota was good -- not excellent (his interception in the third quarter gave Stanford a chance) -- in passing for two scores and rushing for two others.

Unfortunately for Stanford, Kevin Hogan was again the culprit, throwing an interception at the 1 yard line when Stanford was poised to cut the deficit to just four (or potentially three) points. Later, with his team down 31-16, Hogan sealed the game with a fumble, which Oregon converted into a touchdown.

I am at a loss to understand what has happened to Hogan this season. I am at a further loss to understand how CBS Sports gave Hogan player of the game honors for the Cardinal.

Before we tie the knot on this game, we need to give props to Stanford's defense, which finally saw its remarkable streak of holding opponents under 30 points snapped at 31 games. In this era of Air Raid, spread, up tempo, blur, and any other number of wild offenses, it is all the more impressive that the Cardinal have held the line defensively for over two full seasons.

Let's also give credit to Oregon's offense, though. The Cardinal had allowed just four total rushing touchdowns through the season's first eight games; Oregon had four in this game. Stanford was allowing an average of only 250 yards a game; Oregon finished with 525.

Is the point clear? Oregon is the class of the conference. They soundly defeated the conference's best defense, and it wasn't that close. The Ducks have a tricky contest at Utah tomorrow, but if they survive that (as I expect they will), it should be smooth sailing against Colorado and Oregon State, putting the Ducks in the Pac-12 championship game at 11-1 with a clear path to the college football playoff on the line.

Don't blow it, Oregon.

Halftime Show

Three results down, three to go. Time for some halftime fun!

Numbers/computer coding/sports analytics guru Matt Vassar has put together this wonderful tool for the remainder of the Pac-12 season. What is your team's chance of winning the division? Find out right now! Go visit

http://mattvassar.com/pac12simulator/

YOU get to put in the odds for each game. How fun is that? Here is Matt's description:

The Pac-12 simulator simulates the season 10,000 times and outputs who won each division after each simulation. You can adjust the odds of each team winning each game in order to simulate the season to your own specifications. You can even go back to previous games and change outcomes or run the season as though those games hadn't yet been played.

In other words, estimate the chance that the home team will win each remaining game (0 = 0%, 1 = 100%, 0.5 = 50%, 0.75 = 75%, etc.) and then click "Submit Query" at the bottom. Wait 10-15 seconds, and voila: your odds are calculated.

Spoiler: the North is pretty much a done deal (Oregon is a virtual certainty to win). The South, on the other hand, is wide open, with five teams having a legitimate shot.

Cal 45, Oregon State 31

Let's say it right now: Cal gets an A.

Yes, I know their five wins haven't come against top-flight competition. But Cal was 1-11 last season. ONE AND ELEVEN, people. And they might have been worse than their record indicated, as they had no defense at all against anyone. In contrast to Stanford's streak of holding its previous 31 opponents under 30 points per game, Cal has given up at least 30 points in 18 straight conference games.

And yet, somehow, they are 5-4?

Now, Cal's next two games are at USC, and home against Stanford (which I have already predicted Stanford will win by a final score of 5-4). In other words, I don't expect them to get to six wins in conference play. But they have a final tilt with BYU, and if they can get that win, they will go to a bowl game. WHAT? Yes, I just said that. Cal could go to a bowl game.

As for the actual game against Oregon State: nothing special to report; Cal just won it with execution (no fumbles, no interceptions). Oregon State is definitely down this season, but they do get WSU next, which is always nice. But the Golden Bears are the story right now, and I will be pulling for them to make it to the postseason.

UCLA 17, Arizona 7

I called this one.

UCLA was clearly the better team in this game, as evidenced by the defense keeping the Wildcats off the scoreboard for the final 57 minutes. That is pretty darn impressive given that Arizona had scored 26 points or more in their other seven games this season.

The Bruins were not dominant on offense: 11 penalties for 118 yards meant that UCLA had to get out of its own way too many times in this game. The Bruins had some red zone problems, including failing to punch it in from the Arizona 1 yard line; and Hundley again fumbled, this time with 4:32 to play to give Arizona a chance. Without those mistakes, UCLA would have won this game going away.

From my vantage point, Hundley has been something of a disappointment this season. But to his credit, he has admitted his shortcomings, as this article indicates:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/eye-on-college-football/24782154/brett-hundley-says-thinking-about-next-level-hurt-his-early-season-play

Regardless of the team's offensive performance, the story was unquestionably the defense, which finally lived up to its potential by smothering an explosive Arizona team. The Wildcats were held to a paltry 255 total yards, about half their season average.

This was the game I expected the "real" UCLA to finally show up, and they did. I would not want to be UW tomorrow. If I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, UCLA is hitting its stride, and the Huskies are the next victim. Cal and Colorado, you had your chance, but missed. Washington won't get that chance on Saturday.

Game of the Week

Arizona State 19, Utah 16, OT

I called this one too: it was easily the best game last week. (And if you're somewhat irritated that I'm giving myself credit, blame it on the fact that I just picked up a second cold in as many weeks and need something to keep me going.)

Unfortunately, the wrong team won. Utah blew a golden opportunity to steal a win in Tempe, holding the Sun Devils to 2-of-14 on third downs, and winning the turnover battle two to zero. But the Utah offense went ice cold, completing just twelve passes for an awful 57 yards. They were fortunate to even get to overtime, and when they got there, usually reliable kicker Andy Phillips missed from 35 yards out.

Groan. ASU, once again, wins a game that they easily could have lost -- Colorado, Washington, and USC round out the list -- to move to a supremely fraudulent 7-1. If the Sun Devils again make it to the Pac-12 championship game this season, I will be sick. I guess sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.

On Deck

USC and Cal have byes in advance of their Thursday night tilt at the Coliseum next week. Stanford also gets a well-timed bye after the Oregon game.

Notre Dame @ ASU: Who knows? I don't trust either of these teams. Notre Dame's defense has been porous, while Arizona State is clearly beatable. All I can say is, "whatever."

WSU @ Oregon State: Oregon State can at least position themselves for a run at a bowl game, while WSU...can't. Neither team is very good this season, but without Halliday, WSU has to be a big underdog. Beavers should win regardless, because WSU has no defense to speak of.

UCLA @ Washington: The Bruins are favored by six. I'll give the points. And I hope I don't look stupid tomorrow for having said that.

Colorado @ Arizona: Colorado is so close to winning one of these games; could they upset Arizona on the road? It's possible, but they're going to have to find some semblance of a defense to do so. Probably ain't happening.