Don't look now, but it's time for (cue scary music) third quarter REPORT CARDS.
"Aaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhh!"
That's right, Pac-12 football teams. You've got nowhere to run (actually, that's not true: several teams have excellent rushing attacks) and nowhere to hide from the unforgiving evaluations of Mr. G. Throw in the fact that it's early, early, early on Saturday morning, and leeway is not likely forthcoming.
Yes, I realize Week 12 starts today. (Technically, it already started since USC and Cal played on Thursday. I hate the scheduler.) But as your sole supplier, I know full well you can't survive without your fix of Pac-12 football analysis. So take it and say thank you.
First, some results from:
Around the Nation
Baylor 48, Oklahoma 14: That score has to raise some eyebrows (and not just those of very happy cousin Chris). Beating Oklahoma anywhere is good, but beating the Sooners by 34 points in Norman? The playoff selection committee is going to have a really interesting decision if both Baylor and TCU win out and Baylor doesn't get the nod from the Big XII -- especially since Baylor won the head-to-head matchup. But don't cry for the Bears: their non-conference schedule is ranked last in the country. You don't play up, you suffer the consequences. That's life.
Texas A&M 41, Auburn 38: Seriously? Auburn lost at home to A&M? Let's not forget that the Aggies are the same team that lost to Alabama 59-0 (as in 59 to NOTHING). Good night Auburn.
Texas 33, West Virginia 16: The Longhorns have a defense, and they will be a difficult out for TCU at the end of the season. I see good days in Charlie Strong's future.
TCU 41, Kansas State 20: Dominating, impressive victory for the Frogs over the well-coached Wildcats. TCU has possibly the best offense in the nation, and currently sits at #4 in the football playoff standings.
Ohio State 49, Michigan State 37: That's all she wrote for Sparty. Ohio State won this game easily, but despite only one loss, the Buckeyes do not control their destiny for the playoff because of the weakness of the Big Ten conference (not to mention a very bad loss to Virginia Tech). We'll see if enough dominoes fall to allow OSU a place in the final four.
Alabama 20, LSU 13, OT: When Alabama fumbled deep in its own territory with under two minutes to play, and LSU subsequently converted for a field goal to go up 13-10, you had to figure this game was over. But the Tide somehow drove 55 yards in 53 seconds to set up a tying field goal, and won the game in overtime. Huge victory for Alabama, who gets #1 Mississippi State at home on Saturday.
Around the Conference
BYES: USC, Cal, Stanford
ASU 55, Notre Dame 31
The Sun Devils keep winning in bizarre fashion. For two seasons now, Arizona State seems to get exactly the play/bounce/good scheduling they need to be successful. Last Saturday was no exception, as they hosted an overrated Notre Dame team that had been giving the ball away with alarming regularity.
The Irish continued their generous ways by turning it over five times -- four interceptions and a fumble -- which led to 28 ASU points. That was the game; there are no two ways about it.
ASU jumped out to a 34-3 lead in the second quarter as a result of the plethora of early Christmas presents handed out by Everett Golson (aka Santa Claus). Still, Notre Dame mounted a furious comeback to narrow the gap to 34-31 (it would have been tied save for the Notre Dame holder botching a snap on a field goal attempt).
ASU did score to go back up by 10, then added two late touchdowns for the final margin of victory, but don't be fooled. When you're ahead by 31 points, at home, and your opponent manages to nearly tie the game, you are not a great team. The Devils likely would have lost this game had Notre Dame simply not given it away.
Instead, they move to 8-1, and now face the bottom of the conference with their next two games at inept Oregon State and at home against defenseless WSU. It therefore seems likely ASU will move to 10-1 before the Territorial Cup finale against Arizona.
Guess who will be rooting for the Wildcats?
Arizona 38, Colorado 20
Didn't I just mention that ASU scored 28 points off turnovers in their game against Notre Dame? Well, guess what: Arizona did the exact same thing against Colorado.
Four turnovers by QB Sefo Liufau (two fumbles, two interceptions) provided Arizona with all the field position they needed. Colorado thus loses another tight conference battle (this one was 24-20 with ten minutes to play) as a result of miscues. The Buffaloes are 2-8, but they've been in every game this season save for USC. They could well turn the corner next season.
UCLA 44, Washington 30
Yes, I was reading the tea leaves correctly: UCLA is (finally) hitting on all cylinders, and Washington was their latest victim.
Do you remember back in September when I warned everyone not be misled by UCLA's 62-27 win at Arizona State? I stated then that the score was not indicative of how the game went (the Bruins surrendered a ridiculous number of yards in that game).
This time? Just the opposite. The final score was not at all indicative of how completely UCLA dominated this game. The Bruins had a touchdown called back on a phantom offensive pass interference penalty (both announcers had no explanation for the flag) while UW scored a touchdown on a kickoff return to stay marginally in the game after getting down 38-13.
But make no mistake: this game was not close, and the primary reason was Brett Hundley. The Bruin QB -- at last -- had one of those games that makes you say, "Oh, that's how good he can be." Hundley went 29-of-36 for 302 yards, threw for two TD's, rushed for two more, and -- at last -- did not fumble or throw an interception.
The Bruins also decided not to kill themselves with penalties (what a concept!), getting flagged only four times for 37 yards.
Unlike the ASU victory early in the season (which relied on numerous opponent turnovers, several explosion plays on offense, and a kick return TD on special teams -- plays which are not replicable week to week), this victory was not a fluke. UW did not give the game to UCLA; the Huskies turned it over just once (in the final minute when the game was already decided). Instead, UCLA simply outclassed Washington. The Bruins were the better team, and they proved it with a convincing win.
Does this mean that UCLA is the best team in the Pac-12?
Hardly. Oregon's win in October at the Rose Bowl (as well as their wins over Stanford, Utah, and the rest of the North) gives the Ducks full claim to that honor.
It does mean, though, that UCLA's remaining opponents -- USC and Stanford -- better bring it, because if they don't, they will get run over by a Bruin team that is finally playing fast and loose.
Game of the Week (I think)
Oregon 51, Utah 27
Who was the best team in the conference again?
Right: Oregon.
The Ducks flirted with being down two touchdowns right off the bat in Salt Lake City. But then this happened:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ma7AWW_lwio
To Kaelin Clay's credit, he posted this to his Twitter account shortly after the gaffe:
I TAKE FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR THIS GAME BY MY SELFISH ACTIONS…I’ll take this one.
I admire someone who owns his mistakes. (Clay is correct, by the way: his action was selfish, and cost his team a chance to win the game. Alas.)
Oregon's response? The Ducks yawned, went up at halftime (24-10), allowed Utah back in the game early in the 4th quarter (30-27), then slammed the door so completely that the Utes didn't know which way to exit their own stadium.
"Not your garden variety 51-27 win," quipped Ducks coach Mark Helfrich after the game. Perhaps not (due to the crazy fumble), but on the whole, this was a typical Oregon victory: close for a while, then boom -- game over.
The Ducks are the strong favorite to win the Pac-12 title game on December 5 against whoever ends up there (ASU, UCLA, USC, Arizona) from the South. That assumes they remain healthy, however. Oregon lost starting center Hroniss Grasu, potentially for the season, at the end of this game. Given the difficulties Oregon has already had with their offensive line, this might have been a Pyrrhic victory for the Ducks.
WSU 39, Oregon State 32
Do I have to comment?
No?
Good. I won't.
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This week's column is brought to you by Cody Kessler, Marcus Mariota, and Brett Hundley, who were named finalists for the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award.
That's right folks: of the five spots available, the Pac-12 grabbed three.
Further promotional consideration provided by the UCLA Women's Soccer team, which recently extended its unbeaten streak to a remarkable 42 games by winning in the first round of the Women's College Cup. Pac-12 football teams interested in improving their defense may wish to contact these Bruins, who have now scored 33 unanswered goals. (Imagine scoring 33 consecutive touchdowns over eight games, while your opponents are shut out -- in each game.) Goodness me.
Third Quarter Report Cards
The day (paragraph?) of reckoning has arrived.
Once again, I'll start in the north and work my way south. Grades based on overall performance (not simply win-loss record) as well as expectation and talent level.
Pacific Northwest
Washington (6-4, 2-4): Your only conference wins are over Cal and Colorado. Your non-conference slate was a joke. You expect anything higher than a C? Think again. C.
WSU (3-7, 2-5): You know that feeling you get when someone asks you to write them a letter of recommendation, but you know they don't deserve to be recommended? That's WSU. C-.
Oregon (9-1, 6-1): Big early season victory over Michigan State. Emphatic victory over UCLA at the Rose Bowl. Strong performance on the road against Utah. Only loss was a comparative fluke against Arizona when Mariota wasn't 100% and the offensive line was a mess. The Ducks are currently #2 in the CFP standings. What more do you want? A.
Oregon State (4-5, 1-5): I knew the Beavers would be challenged this season, but I didn't think they would be this bad. Sean Mannion is a senior. Surely he could have led OSU to at least one win over Cal or WSU at home (he did not). The losses to Stanford and USC were especially ugly. Not good, Beavers. D+.
Bay Area
I loved the front page of Tuesday's San Jose Mercury News. On the left, the top line read:
How did Stanford get so bad? (they're 5-4)
On the right:
How did Cal get so good? (they're 5-4)
Pretty much.
Stanford (5-4, 3-3): There isn't much more to say. The Cardinal have been great on defense, but abysmally awful on offense all season. Kevin Hogan is a senior QB. The offensive line is supposedly strong. So what's the explanation?
Answer: there is none. As a result, Stanford's wins have come against Nobody (Davis), Nobody Military Institute (Army), Not Much (UW), Very Little (Oregon State), and WSU (no explanation required). Stanford gave away the USC game, couldn't hold on at Notre Dame, played woefully at Arizona State, and was outclassed by Oregon. With games remaining against Utah, Cal, and UCLA, Stanford is in serious danger of finishing 6-6 (or possibly even worse). There is still time to get to 8-4, but this is a third quarter grade, and as Stanford has not improved since the end of the first semester, its grade remains the same: D+.
Cal (5-4, 2-4): Do you remember how completely miserable Cal was last season? They were not even close to being competitive. In fact, they weren't even close to being close to being competitive. The Bears were HORRIFIC. And yet this season, they have been in all nine of their games (save for the multiple turnover performance vs. Washington). Yes, Cal's wins have come against inferior opposition (Northwestern, Sacramento State, Colorado, WSU, OSU). But Cal still has a winning record! On top of this, Cal has played everyone else tough, putting a huge scare into UCLA, challenging Oregon for four quarters, and defeating Arizona until a last-second Hail Mary took place. Even if Cal finishes 5-7, that is cause for celebration because of the overall improvement the team has shown. A.
Rockies
Utah (6-3, 3-3): The Utes are the unfortunate "oops" team that has both won the wrong games (UCLA, USC) and lost the wrong games (WSU, ASU).
Subjectivity aside, this has been a great year for Utah. The 30-28 victory over UCLA at the Rose Bowl was a signature win for Kyle Whittingham; Utah played a virtually perfect, error-free game to derail the Bruins, and followed that up with an overtime win at Oregon State and a miraculous two minute drill to upend USC. The loss to Oregon is fully understandable, while the loss at Arizona State was due to a field goal malfunction. Still, losing at home to WSU prevents the Utes from getting full credit for an excellent season. A-.
Colorado (2-8, 0-7): Sometimes, the breaks just don't go your way.
Colorado has lost not once but twice in double overtime this season (at Cal, vs. UCLA) and came very close against Oregon State as well. Just as significant, the Buffs have lost four games to ASU, Arizona, Colorado State, and Washington by two TD's or so each -- but could have won several of those contests had they limited turnovers.
In other words, CU is close. They are improving, but they're not there yet. C.
SoCal
UCLA (8-2, 5-2): Hmmm. This is a tough one.
On the one hand, the Bruins have certainly underperformed on the whole. Several games that shouldn't have been close (Virginia, Memphis, Cal, Colorado) were too close for comfort. The defense has been up and down; the offense too has not been entirely consistent (Hundley in particular has struggled). Perhaps due to the weight of expectations, the Bruins looked tight for the first 2/3 of the season.
On the other hand, UCLA did win each of the close games above. The only losses were to Utah (a result of the Utes playing their best game of the season) and Oregon. Furthermore, UCLA has looked dominant the past two weeks, completely shutting down Arizona and carving up Washington. The Bruins are playing their best football of the season right now.
UCLA has won nine straight games away from home (6-0 this season), something which would have been unimaginable under Rick Neuheisel. They must receive credit for that accomplishment.
Darn that loss to Utah! If the Bruins had been able to sneak that victory, they'd be sitting pretty at #5 or 6 in the CFP rankings. Nevertheless, 8-2 ain't too bad, and with a #11 ranking, who knows what might happen between now and December 7? B.
USC (6-3, 5-2): CBS Sports recently described the Trojans as "that bipolar friend of yours who stopped taking his medication years ago." USC has certainly had its share of peaks and valleys: 13-10 over Stanford (ecstasy), 38-34 vs. ASU (agony), 28-26 over Arizona (near fatal cardiac arrest), 24-21 vs. Utah (cardiac failure).
These up and down results are most likely due to the team's youth and lack of depth (although it must be stated that at least one of the losses was directly the result of poor coaching). It should be clear that no one is going to dominate USC: their three losses were by a combined 13 points. The Trojans could be 8-1.
On the flip side, the Trojans also won two games by close margins, which means that USC could be 4-5.
The truth is that USC isn't quite good enough to be an 8-1 team, but is much better than 4-5. 7-2 is probably what they should be, and had they managed to close out ASU, that's exactly where they would be. Instead, they sit at a respectable 6-3. Cody Kessler has played lights out all season, and he deserves any postseason accolades he receives. If USC's coach can eventually perform as well as the quarterback, the Trojans could really be on to something. B-.
Desert
Arizona State (8-1, 5-1): This team is making me sick. They are the luckiest team in the universe! ASU could have lost to Colorado (outgained by something like 200 yards), Washington (10-10 in the 4th quarter), Utah (overtime), and Notre Dame (34-31 in the 4th quarter despite Notre Dame trying its best to give ASU the game), and absolutely should have lost to USC. Yet they somehow won all five of those games!
I suppose I should be giving gold stars for "resilience" or "fortitude" or whatnot, but I just can't. ASU's defense has been good only against bad offensive teams. ASU's offense has been good only against bad defensive teams (exception: 4th quarter of USC game). If the Sun Devils were to play Oregon right now, they would get pulverized. Yet ASU has (a) the inside track to the Pac-12 South, (b) a clear path to the Pac-12 title, and (c) a direct route to the CFP. No, they WILL NOT get that far, but I'm cringing just thinking how this team, which lost by 35 points to UCLA at home and should have lost to USC (twice!), is probably going to win the South. What a farce. A-. I guess.
Arizona (7-2, 4-2): The bottom line is this: with a freshman QB and a shaky secondary, there's no way Arizona should be any better than 6-3. Instead, all the Wildcats have done is win all three non-conference games (including a good win over Nevada), wax WSU, defeat Colorado, shock Cal on the last play, and -- did I mention -- win AT OREGON. In addition, Arizona was very unlucky not to beat USC. Given what they have, that is quite a resume. A.
Overall Grade Distribution
A's: 5 (Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Utah)
B's: 2 (UCLA, USC)
C's: 3 (Washington, WSU, Colorado)
D's: 2 (Stanford, Oregon State)
Up Next
Byes: UCLA, Oregon, Colorado, WSU
Cal @ USC: USC and Cal have good offenses, but only USC has a defense. I expect the Trojans to win this somewhat easily, but I also expect Cal to put up a fight. Trojans by about 14. (Note: I know this game was played Thursday. Nevertheless, I'm telling you what I was expecting.)
Utah @ Stanford: You better bring your hard hat for this one, because there will be some serious hitting going on. Whoever avoids major mistakes (in particular, turnovers) should win. I don't know what the under is, but I'm taking it.
Washington @ Arizona: UW could win this game, but I don't think they will unless they get a lot of help from the Wildcats, who still have a 2.15% chance of winning the South. (What, you haven't used the Pac-12 simulator yet?)
Arizona State @ Oregon State: How pleasant for the Sun Devils that they get to play Oregon State rather than Oregon this season. Naturally.
Good night. Or rather, good morning.
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