clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Week 9 Pac-12 lines breakdown with

Peter Loshak from breaks down this week's Pac-12 lines.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

SportsBookReview breaks down the Pac-12 betting lines with us each week.

Oregon at Arizona St -2.5, 66.5

Oregon and Arizona St both come into this game in the midst of disappointing seasons, and both have underachieved on offense in particular. But both are also coming off of improved results last week, and both are getting key offensive players back to full health.

Arizona St gets leading rusher Demario Richard back this week after missing ASU's loss to Utah last week, which was still a relatively impressive performance where they were leading late on the road against an elite team. And Oregon has starting QB Vernon Adams getting healthier, to go along with the return from suspension of key WR Darren Carrington. Oregon took a solid step forward last week getting a road win against scrappy Washington.

This game should come down to execution, as both teams have been plagued by inconsistency this year. There should be big public action on this game as a prime time event, but probably not much in the way of sharp action.

USC at Cal +6, 69

USC is coming off of a nice win, but they're getting hit hard by the injury bug. Among others, a week after star Center Max Tuerk went down to injury, his replacement, Toa Lobendahn, went down as well.

Still, USC is of course supremely talented even down to their third and fourth-string players.

Cal though has a huge passing game that can keep up with anyone in a shootout, and they should be well-prepared for this one with two extra rest days and coming off of two straight losses. At the moment, the market has Cal at +6, but The Greek notably has a lean towards Cal at that number, hanging +5.5, which may be very telling.

USC will be dangerous and playing in statement mode the rest of the way this season after their disappointing start and the subsequent dismissal of coach Steve Sarkisian, but I agree with The Greek's lean to Cal here at this number.

Colorado at UCLA -21.5, 63.5

UCLA is coming off a strong win and cover over Cal after 2 straight losses, and that win appears to have rejuvenated the team and given their season new hope. This line has gotten bet up a handful of points since opening, almost certainly due to overwhelmingly lopsided public action.

Colorado is overmatched here, and they usually get blown out when playing ranked teams, having lost 19 in a row to ranked teams by an average of almost 30 points. Still, after UCLA's win last week, they're now looking ahead to winning out the rest of the way, and if they get out to a big lead early, will probably be more motivated to get out of the game injury-free than to run up the score. The under could be a play with surprise value if both teams, for different reasons, have game plans to limit possessions.

Both the spread and total may continue to get bet higher by public action.

Oregon St at Utah -24, 54

Oregon St missed out on their best chance to get a conference win last week, losing at home to weak Colorado, despite outgaining them. OSU is now 1-6 ATS on the year.

Utah is coming off their first loss of the season, and is sure to be in bounce-back statement mode at home against an opponent they can dominate. Utah still has their National Championship hopes alive, and although in the grand scheme of things they don't necessarily need style points with a blowout win here, that's probably what their mindset will be, especially after having been down late in their last home game against Arizona St two weeks ago.

Oregon St also suffered a blow when starting offensive tackle Sean Harlow was lost for the season last week, which will cause Oregon St to have to shuffle their offensive line around and be even more vulnerable against Utah's tough defensive front.

This line has gotten bet up a bit since opening, but not a lot. If it drops below 24 by kickoff, it will probably imply sharp action, although a move like that would surprise me. More likely, significant public action will come in on game day and drive the line up another half-point or so.

Stanford at Washington St +10.5, 62

Both teams have major ATS momentum at the moment. Stanford has covered their last 6 in a row after their opening-week loss, and Washington St has covered their last 4 in a row, all against Pac-12 opponents, and all by big margins, with an average margin of cover of 14 points.

The side and total have both seen big line movement since opening. The spread has gotten bet down from 13 to about 10.5, and the total from 66 to 62. The weather could prove to be a factor, with some rain and relatively strong winds currently in the forecast. That would presumably have a negative impact on Washington St's pass-heavy offensive scheme, and possibly benefit Stanford, who is tougher in the trenches.

If Stanford does have a vulnerability this year, it is on defense against the pass. Both USC and UCLA were able to rack up passing yards against Stanford, and Washington St does have a similarly-capable air attack.

The early line movement in favor of Washington St was driven by sharper money, and the public will likely be overwhelmingly on Stanford by kickoff, so the books may have a pronounced sharp/public split with the betting action on this one.

Arizona at Washington -4.5, 58

It's looking like Washington's starting QB Jake Browning will play this week, which is a big plus for them. Even with Browning though, Washington is weak offensively. The Huskies have lost 3 of their last 4 games ATS after catching the market a bit by surprise to start the season and covering their first 3 games.

Arizona has much more talent on offense, with 2 capable QBs, and the big question for this game is how much Washington's strong defense will be able to hold down Arizona's offense, traveling to Washington and possibly dealing with inclement weather.

There's not likely to be a significant imbalance from the public betting on this one, so any big line movement we see will probably be due to sharp action and may have some value following even after the move. More likely though is that this game will have low betting volume from both the sharps and the public.