Vegas has Gonzaga, long-time national media darling, as the 8.5 point favorite over the UCLA Bruins in their Sweet 16 matchup tomorrow. Gonzaga has already beaten the Bruins, 87-74 in Pauley back in December. That was the beginning of UCLA's now infamous five game swoon. So is there any shot for the Bruins to win Friday?

Gonzaga is an offensive team. Not a defensive team, especially not an outstanding perimeter defensive team, and not a rebounding team.

UCLA has been playing a packed-in man-to-man defense. Mediocre three point shooting teams saw their stats get a boost, but the Bruins won anyway. That won't be the case with Gonzaga. They will have to be covered on the perimeter.

The key matchup in this game? Kevon Looney vs. Kyle Wiltjer. Wiltjer buried Looney right from the tip-off back in December. Gonzaga's coach, Mark Few, saw something that no one else did at that point. Double-double machine and sure first-round draft pick Looney really couldn't defend yet -- especially not a superior player like Wiltjer who backed Looney down repeatedly, and then burned the nets from the three on top of that. Wiltjer's stat line: 30 minutes, 24 points, 9-13 from the field including 3-5 from three, and 4 rebounds. Looney played 36 minutes, fouled out, and had 14 points and 8 rebounds. But here is the surprise stat. Despite being taken to school by Wiltjer, Looney had 7 offensive rebounds to Wiltjer's zero. That said, the Bulldogs have two other bigs to do the dirty work on the glass: Karnowski had 2 O-Rebs, Sabonis had 1 and the others combined for 7 total. UCLA had 13 O-Rebs for the game -- Tony Parker had 3. Also on that note, Thomas Welsh is a different player now. He only had 2 points and 2 rebounds in 15 minutes then, but he's come a long way since.

For the Bruins, this game comes down to four hcallenges:

1) Looney has to "D UP" Wiltjer all over the court. Since Gonzaga excels from the perimeter, switching into the 3-2 will help. Gonzaga is big down low, and smart as a team, so the peril will be that they will abuse Norman Powell underneath, but the Bruins have to pick their poison. Shutting down Gonzaga's perimeter scoring is paramount.

2) Isaac Hamilton has to keep Kevin Pangos under control. Despite the fact that Coach Steve Alford repeatedly calls on the much-maligned Hamilton to guard the opposition's best guard or wing, the pundits keep yelling for Powell to have that responsibility. Alford mixes it up, but live with the fact that Hamilton will cover Pangos, and though he's been inconsistent, he's also shut down the likes of Joseph Young and Stanley Johnson in spurts.

3) Tony Parker must show up for this game. Gonzaga is too big and long underneath, so don't expect a UAB-like explosion. What we can't see is a disappearing act from Parker ala Arizona, SMU and countless other games.

4) Hit shots from outside! Gonzaga bottles up the interior. Few might feel they're big enough not to double Tony -- even though UAB just paid for not doing so, and Tony hasn't handled the double well at all. Norman might beat Wesley off the dribble, but there will be someone there to protect the rim. I won't be surprised if Gonzaga keeps it packed until they're forced to spread it out by Bryce.

BYU stunned Gonzaga at home, 73-70 at the end of February. BYU shot 43.2% from three compared to Gonzaga at 37.5%, but that was only one more three. The other two points came from free throws made advantage of two even though BYU shot 55.2% from the line. Gonzaga had been playing with low intensity for a couple of weeks, and BYU caught them at the right time. Not much to glean from this game. Arizona pounding them on the boards is more instructive.

Let's go to the stats and the Four Factors graphical comparison.

There's no equivocation here. Gonzaga is superior, offense and defense, except for Offensive Rebound Rate and Turnovers Caused. It's obvious that Gonzaga's offensive is more efficient by all measures: OR%, FLR% and eFG%. We all know that Gonzaga is an offensive juggernaut, but there doesn't seem to be much comfort to be found in the defense either. Gonzaga is ranked 50th in points allowed, UCLA is 215th.

They've already played on UCLA's floor, and Gonzaga won.

I'm not going to call this game for the Bruins -- I don't see it. But, I will say that UCLA has grown more than Gonzaga has since the Bruins awful December. The defense has improved, both man and the 3-2 zone, and the offense, on most nights, goes through Tony Parker now. Add to that, Norman Powell found his inner dribble-drive back during the second half of the loss in Oregon -- he's been a dynamo ever since. However, given that my number one key is Looney, it troubles me to say that I haven't seen equivalent growth in Kevon.

The game is stacked in Gonzaga's favor, but it still has to actually be played, and it's the new look Bruins that will take the floor. It will come down to Looney controlling Wiltjer, and Bryce Alford channeling his performance from beyond the arc in the SMU game.