clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Week five Pac-12 lines chat with Peter Loshak from

Each week, breaks down the Pac-12 lines.

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

As always, Peter Loshak from SportsBookReview is here to break down the weekly Pac-12 lines.

Washington St at Cal -18, 71

A curiously low opening total for this game considering the offenses involved. The total opened in the mid-60s, and unsurprising got very quickly bet up to the low-70s. It might get bet even higher by kickoff. Last year when these teams met, the game went to 119 points, and Washington St even went to 71 against offensively-uninspiring Rutgers in their first road game this year. Cal, obviously, has one of the top passing attacks in the nation. A particularly sharp college football handicapper I know says he still loves the Over at 71. The spread has also seen a lot of movement, with Cal getting bet way up after opening at just -14. Washington St so far has gotten great results from their offensive line and their pass rush, but they haven't played tough competition, and both could take a step back here. Ominously, in Washington St's last game against Wyoming, despite the final score that shows a margin win for the Cougars, Wyoming outgained Washington St in overall yards. Cal presents a far more dangerous challenge offensively. Washington St is off of a bye week though, and that should be a big help. As far as a bet on the game is concerned, I would pass on the side, and trust my contact's pick on the Over.

Arizona State at UCLA -14, 60

Arizona St is 0-4 ATS, and got blown out in both of their games against quality competition this year, losing each game ATS by at least 18 points. ASU's offense is not as potent as it has been in recent years, and all 4 of their games have also gone Under the closing total so far. Last year UCLA blew out Arizona St by 35, and ASU appears to have taken a step back from last year, while UCLA is looking stronger. And UCLA's defense appears to be getting a preferable matchup with Arizona St's offense, which is predicated on the pass, and not built to take advantage of what has been UCLA's weakness on defense so far this year, defending the run. Still, Arizona St does have a recent history of bouncing back nicely after big losses, and they have been on the wrong side of turnovers this year, which is something that is correctable. QB Mike Bercovici has called this game a "must-win" for Arizona St, and betting against a desperate team as a big underdog is often a dangerous thing to do. The public will very likely heavily favor UCLA, and on paper UCLA appears to be the side at the current line. But if sharps come in on ASU late, it wouldn't surprise me, especially if the line gets bet up closer to 17.

Oregon at Colorado +7.5, 69.5

A fascinating handicapping scenario, the questions of course being how much will Oregon be able to bounce back from their horrific blowout home loss, and how much does Colorado have the personnel to take advantage of Oregon's team weaknesses if they ultimately prove to be for real. The juggernaut that Oregon once was depended on an elite offense to prop up the defense, and this year Oregon isn't getting the same results offensively as they used to, which is causing their defense to get badly exposed, something that was predicted by close Pac 12 analysts in the preseason. The Ducks aren't getting good protection from the offensive line, and they don't have anywhere near the kind of elite QB they would need to make it all work. And injuries to key skill position players such as Byron Marshall doesn't help either. Colorado is still Colorado though, and Oregon is still a quality program, even if they are clearly second-tier as far as the National Championship is concerned. The spread on this game has moved a ton since opening. It was as high as 12 in some places, and now stands at 7.5, with several books even at 7 currently. It will be interesting to see if the line gets bet back up by kickoff, and if any sharp action sees the current line as an overreaction, which is possible. In mid-August, the books that had an early line on this game had Oregon favored by almost 17.

Arizona at Stanford -14, 62.5

The line for this game was late to go up because of injury concerns. All signs heading into Saturday appear to be pointing squarely in Stanford's favor. Despite a tweaked ankle to QB Kevin Hogan, Stanford still managed to get a margin win and cover last week as a double-digit road favorite at Oregon St in a prime time game, a very impressive outcome. Stanford has now covered their last 3 games in a row after the disturbing Week 1 loss to Northwestern, while Arizona got blown out at home last week, and is dealing with numerous key injury issues on both sides of the ball, most importantly to QB Anu Solomon. Stanford always plays a physical brand of football, and that is exactly what a hurting team like Arizona doesn't need right now, going on the road. Still, in the Pac 12, expecting the unexpected is often a profitable approach to assume when betting into the market lines. Stanford does have a bye next week but then a big Thursday night game against UCLA the week after. Arizona has gone Over the total in all 4 of their games this year, and Stanford has gone Over in their last 2, but with Arizona's injury situation and Stanford returning home with their sights set on some big games coming up, we may see a lower-scoring game than recent final scores might suggest.