2015 Chaos Index: Preseason
Where are things going to get chaotic fastest? Here are your answers, and no, Illinois doesn’t count. Things are about to get really mellow now that Tim Beckman is headed for an autumn in the tropics (or at the labor commissioner’s office, but that’s another matter). The whole Chaos Index can be found here.
1. Iowa. Think the natives are getting restless? After his big run from 2002-2004 (and a shocking 2009), Kirk Ferentz has been good for 6-8 wins like clockwork lo these 16 years. This year, they open with Illinois State, who barely lost to four-time FCS champs North Dakota State in last year's title game. If things go south on September 5th, this will get very ugly very fast. If they don't, things won't get weird until Wisconsin plows them in Week 5.
2. Texas. Typically, a new football coach - particularly one with a track record like Charlie Strong's - gets a few years to rebuild matters. Typically, a fan base isn't nearly as obnoxiously smug and entitled as the Horns'. One 6-7 season later, with Texas now the fourth best program in, er, Texas, the long knives will be out quick, especially if things start 2-4, which is a distinct possibility when your first half includes Notre Dame, TCU, and both Oklahoma schools. If they lose at home to Cal in Week Three, the team should probably plan on relocating to Abilene.
3. Florida. The last time the Gators dipped into the Mountain West for a head coach, they got Urban Meyer. Jim McElwain is not Urban Meyer. The best quarterback on the roster appears to be "none of the above". The best running back on the roster just left the roster. The defense is led by the alleged DBU crew, which backstops the definitely not DLU and LBU crews. They won't lose to a Georgia Southern this year, but happy days are decidedly not here again in the Swamp.
4. South Florida. You hired a coach who went 16-20 in the Sun Belt? What did you expect? Last year, the disasters that were Tulsa and SMU spared USF from having only one win against an FBS opponent. Tulsa is not on the schedule this year, and Chad Morris is in at SMU. Welcome to the final year of the Willie Taggart era.
5. USC. The Trojans are back! There's a Heisman Trophy quarterback at Troy! A Pac-12 title and playoff berth are going to happen! Never mind the questions on both lines, the lack of quality in the secondary after Adoree Jackson, or the questions about what will happen if Cody Kessler goes down. Especially never mind that the fans are already halfway to demanding Sark's head on a platter. One surprise loss - y'know, like Boston College, Arizona State, or Utah last year - and the torches and pitchforks will be out. Have another drink, Sark.
6. USC. A year ago, the Gamecocks were feeling, er, cocky and hanging a 75-foot tall Spurrier on the side of Williams-Brice Stadium. 12 months later, after a horrific 7-6 flop, the D can't possibly be anywhere near as bad as it was in 2014. Of course, the offense won't be nearly as good with questions at quarterback and with no depth beyond Pharoh Cooper at receiver. The Spurrier Is Retiring talk will only heat up more.
7. Utah. There's talent everywhere, and the Utes have proved they belong in the big time. These should be the salad days in SLC, and they were until some jackass (hint: he's the A.D.) decided to pick a fight with Kyle Whittingham, who really should be coaching somewhere better than this. If anything weird happens, and with Michigan and Oregon in the first month, that's possible, tensions could escalate quickly, followed by - naturally - chaos.
8. Washington State. Try this little crisis on for size: more consolidation is coming. Somebody - some Power 5 program from a small media market - is going to get left out. (Okay, several somebodies are going to be left out.) Things aren't working out so hot for the Pirate. Things better improve quickly, before somebody in Pullman pulls the trigger in an attempt to make things look much better in the Palouse.
9. Ole Mississippi State. The feel good stories of 2014 won't get ugly this year, but there's about to be a severe reduction in the feelgoodishness of things, particularly in Oxford, where there's still a ton of talent on both lines but a lot of questions at the skill positions. In Stark Vegas, Dak Prescott might be the best quarterback in the game, but enough talent has moved on to Sundays that last year is about to look like the good old days.
