Apologies for the links: D3 doesn't work with the editor engine
(3-3) last week, (10-7) on the season
Last week of caveats about sample size
Saturday
Last week of caveats about sample size
Saturday
#35 USC at #39 Arizona 12:30pm PT, Fox
USC Offense vs. Arizona Defense
Arizona Offense vs USC Defense
On the face of it these teams seem headed in different directions. USC took the opportunity to reset its season against ASU and then turned the confidence from that into a game where they beat a solid Colorado squad despite losing the turnover battle by 3. Arizona came out of a very gritty performance against Washington looking a lot better than we expected, but UCLA and then Utah exposed what a Potemkin village Arizona has become. For the last few years when ESPN collects off-the-record comments from coaches around the league they always compliment RichRod and his staff on getting the most out of the least talented team in the Pac12, but cardboard and tape can only hold together so long. USC and Arizona have both been inconsistent on offense and bad at defense at times this season, but USC can win just by playing up to its talent level. Arizona's offensive rating is probably deceptive at the moment. I have built an exponential decay into the model, but the model is extremely impressed with Dawkins huge game against UW and that will carry less weight into the future. Arizona needs Dawkins or Tate to have a monster game just to keep it close and Arizona should have serious concerns about how many hits their QBs are taking. Duel threat QBs take hits in the running game and Arizona passes a lot and isn't good at protecting the QB, meaning the QB is probably taking multiple shots every drive. Arizona is playing too many walk-ons and too few young players for you to be convinced that RichRod has committed to a rebuild yet. Lose this game and RichRod should commit to playing as many young guys (with higher ceilings than walk-ons as he can); which he probably won't because rewarding players for winning practice seems to be a consistent program priority over player development with game reps. That said; USC's special teams might win this game on their own.
USC 31 Arizona 24
USC Offense vs. Arizona Defense
Arizona Offense vs USC Defense
On the face of it these teams seem headed in different directions. USC took the opportunity to reset its season against ASU and then turned the confidence from that into a game where they beat a solid Colorado squad despite losing the turnover battle by 3. Arizona came out of a very gritty performance against Washington looking a lot better than we expected, but UCLA and then Utah exposed what a Potemkin village Arizona has become. For the last few years when ESPN collects off-the-record comments from coaches around the league they always compliment RichRod and his staff on getting the most out of the least talented team in the Pac12, but cardboard and tape can only hold together so long. USC and Arizona have both been inconsistent on offense and bad at defense at times this season, but USC can win just by playing up to its talent level. Arizona's offensive rating is probably deceptive at the moment. I have built an exponential decay into the model, but the model is extremely impressed with Dawkins huge game against UW and that will carry less weight into the future. Arizona needs Dawkins or Tate to have a monster game just to keep it close and Arizona should have serious concerns about how many hits their QBs are taking. Duel threat QBs take hits in the running game and Arizona passes a lot and isn't good at protecting the QB, meaning the QB is probably taking multiple shots every drive. Arizona is playing too many walk-ons and too few young players for you to be convinced that RichRod has committed to a rebuild yet. Lose this game and RichRod should commit to playing as many young guys (with higher ceilings than walk-ons as he can); which he probably won't because rewarding players for winning practice seems to be a consistent program priority over player development with game reps. That said; USC's special teams might win this game on their own.
USC 31 Arizona 24
#53 Utah at #67 Oregon State 1pm PT, Pac12 Network
Utah Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
Oregon State Offense vs. Utah Defense
Utah's playing; so special teams will be important. Oregon State is much better at special teams than Arizona and that, and this game being in Corvallis could turn this game into a slugfest where OSU is there with a chance to win in the end. Utah bludgeoned Arizona with field position and then wore the Arizona defense down by keeping them on the field while Arizona's offense couldn't stay on it. Oregon State took advantage of their strength in corralling Explosive Drives to knock off Cal at home last week. I think Utah grinds one out up north.
Utah 27 Oregon State 17
Utah Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
Oregon State Offense vs. Utah Defense
Utah's playing; so special teams will be important. Oregon State is much better at special teams than Arizona and that, and this game being in Corvallis could turn this game into a slugfest where OSU is there with a chance to win in the end. Utah bludgeoned Arizona with field position and then wore the Arizona defense down by keeping them on the field while Arizona's offense couldn't stay on it. Oregon State took advantage of their strength in corralling Explosive Drives to knock off Cal at home last week. I think Utah grinds one out up north.
Utah 27 Oregon State 17
#57 Stanford at #65 Notre Dame 4:30pm PT, NBC
Stanford Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
Notre Dame Offense vs. Stanford Defense
Two preseason top 10 teams meet in game that NBC has to be really disappointed in right now. Notre Dame has been bad on defense, inconsistent on offense, and dumb and arrogant on the sidelines. Kelly has flailed around blaming everyone but himself for this season; which is weird because blaming your team that you hire and lead in business is a sure way to get fired. Stanford has just been terrible in the passing game. Their offense line, which they have been marketing as "The most interesting offensive line in the world" sure isn't very good at being offensive linemen. Stanford is struggling to give the QB time to throw, especially on play action which is Stanford's bread and butter, but which takes longer to develop and requires a deeper drop. I have trouble putting much faith in either team right now, but I think Notre Dame pulls it out at home. Kizer can flat out play and I think Kelly rallies the troops after an out of character week from a good coach.
Notre Dame 45 Stanford 38
Stanford Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
Notre Dame Offense vs. Stanford Defense
Two preseason top 10 teams meet in game that NBC has to be really disappointed in right now. Notre Dame has been bad on defense, inconsistent on offense, and dumb and arrogant on the sidelines. Kelly has flailed around blaming everyone but himself for this season; which is weird because blaming your team that you hire and lead in business is a sure way to get fired. Stanford has just been terrible in the passing game. Their offense line, which they have been marketing as "The most interesting offensive line in the world" sure isn't very good at being offensive linemen. Stanford is struggling to give the QB time to throw, especially on play action which is Stanford's bread and butter, but which takes longer to develop and requires a deeper drop. I have trouble putting much faith in either team right now, but I think Notre Dame pulls it out at home. Kizer can flat out play and I think Kelly rallies the troops after an out of character week from a good coach.
Notre Dame 45 Stanford 38
#49 Arizona State at #8 Colorado 7pm PT, Pac12 Network
Arizona State Offense vs. Colorado Defense
Colorado Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
Arizona State wasn't all that good at offense before all the injuries took place, but as the season has gone on the model has been rating their defense more and more highly. Colorado's offense is worrying me a little. The only really good defense they have played so far is Michigan and Colorado played pretty well against them. Colorado had a great game against a horrific Oregon defense and another good one against an OSU defense that has been falling in the model. I trust Colorado's defense, they have been great, but the offense worries me in this game. Colorado isn't at UCLA levels of incompetence yet though and they are at home.
Colorado 31 ASU 13
Arizona State Offense vs. Colorado Defense
Colorado Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
Arizona State wasn't all that good at offense before all the injuries took place, but as the season has gone on the model has been rating their defense more and more highly. Colorado's offense is worrying me a little. The only really good defense they have played so far is Michigan and Colorado played pretty well against them. Colorado had a great game against a horrific Oregon defense and another good one against an OSU defense that has been falling in the model. I trust Colorado's defense, they have been great, but the offense worries me in this game. Colorado isn't at UCLA levels of incompetence yet though and they are at home.
Colorado 31 ASU 13
#26 UCLA at #3 Washington State 7:30pm PT, ESPN
UCLA Offense vs. Washington State Defense
Washington State Offense vs. UCLA Defense
UCLA's offense is terrible, flaccid, terrible and now they get to play a very good WSU defense potentially without Josh Rosen. UCLA is going to have to come up with something new, gadget-y, or on special teams to make a big difference. The flip side is going to be a very tough challenge for the WSU offense against UCLA's defense, which is rolling. UCLA has linebackers that can cover most receievers so they may not be as easy to spread and run on as other teams from a pure personnel standpoint. This should give us a very good idea of just how good Washington State's offense is since they haven't played a defense in UCLA's league yet. UCLA needs to shorten the field with its defense and make special teams plays like they did against Arizona to win this game. I think UCLA's D is good enough to give me pause, but so many things have to go right for the Bruins to pull this off on the road.
Wazzu 34 UCLA 20
UCLA Offense vs. Washington State Defense
Washington State Offense vs. UCLA Defense
UCLA's offense is terrible, flaccid, terrible and now they get to play a very good WSU defense potentially without Josh Rosen. UCLA is going to have to come up with something new, gadget-y, or on special teams to make a big difference. The flip side is going to be a very tough challenge for the WSU offense against UCLA's defense, which is rolling. UCLA has linebackers that can cover most receievers so they may not be as easy to spread and run on as other teams from a pure personnel standpoint. This should give us a very good idea of just how good Washington State's offense is since they haven't played a defense in UCLA's league yet. UCLA needs to shorten the field with its defense and make special teams plays like they did against Arizona to win this game. I think UCLA's D is good enough to give me pause, but so many things have to go right for the Bruins to pull this off on the road.
Wazzu 34 UCLA 20
Off: Washington, Oregon, Cal
